A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude prices were down last Friday on close as the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised the demand outlook for 2011-2016 downward by -500,000 bpd from the previous projection. The November WTI contract lost $0.21 to close at $91.86/bbl while Brent settled at $114.62/bbl, down $1.09. Brent futures fell more than the US crude marker which resulted in narrowed spread by -$0.88 to $22.76/bbl. Crude prices traded volatile last week dragged between signals of weak demand, supply risks and geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The market remains cautious on the developments in Eurozone awaiting a formal request from Spain for a bailout and also the Euro leaders meeting this week on Thursday and Friday. Today, the Chinese CPI for September reported fell to 1.9% which leaves room for further monetary policy easing. During the week we will also keep an eye on the reports on inflation, industrial output, retail sales and 3rd quarter GDP data from China. The US company earnings season starting this week is expected to provide mixed consensus taking into consideration the range of China’s slowdown and it’s consequences for US exports. We will look at US manufacturing data and US retail sales later this afternoon. This morning, crude is trading down.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European fuel oil markets closed lower last week. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam was assessed down by app.$5/mt while cargo prices were even weaker, down by more than $8/mt. Main ports in the area saw limited trading activity, with hsfo and lsfo prompt prices remaining in firm territory. The Singapore fuel oil market fell after several days of increase, dropped $4.0-5.0 during the morning Platts window last Friday. There is ample supply at the moment with strong incoming cargoes this month. The delivered bunker premiums remained between $4.5-6.0 above cargo prices last Friday. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Nov Dec Jan Q113 Q213 2013 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0.21) 91.86 ↓ 92.11 92.64 93.06 93.34 94.32 92.13 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (1.09) 114.62 ↓ 112.93 112.22 111.60 111.07 109.53 112.99 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (24.50) 1001.00 ↑ 992.00 981.33 974.08 967.33 950.36 948.02 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (8.50) 619.50 ↑ 622.00 622.25 623.00 622.00 617.75 614.75 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (7.50) 619.25 ↑ 617.00 616.75 616.50 617.00 613.75 610.75 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (11.00) 653.75 ↑ 654.50 655.50 656.25 655.00 650.50 647.50 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0.88) 98.00 ↑ 97.42 97.20 97.00 97.00 96.35 95.93 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (5.25) 649.00 ↑ 645.75 645.50 646.00 646.25 641.50 639.00 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (13.50) 1014.25 ↑ 992.25 981.25 975.25 968.25 952.25 950.25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (5.00) 630.00 ↑ 632.25 632.50 633.25 632.25 628.00 625.00 Physical Singapore 380 CST (4.00) 655.00 ↑ 656.00 655.75 656.25 657.00 652.25 649.75

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Retail Sales High 15-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 1.0% 0.9% - Empire Manufacturing Medium 15-Oct 8:30 AM Sep -2.0 -10.4 - Business Inventories Medium 15-Oct 10:00 AM Aug 0.5% 0.8% - Core CPI High 16-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.1% - Net Long-Term TIC Flows Medium 16-Oct 9:00 AM Aug NA $67.0B - Industrial Production Medium 16-Oct 9:15 AM Sep 0.0% -1.2% - Capacity Utilization Medium 16-Oct 9:15 AM Sep 78.2% 78.2% - Housing Starts Medium 17-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 765K 750K - Biulding Permits Medium 17-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 815K 803K - Initial Claims Medium 18-Oct 8:30 AM Oct-13 370K 339K - Philadelphia Fed Medium 18-Oct 10:00 AM Sep 0.1% -0.1% - Existing Home Sales Medium 19-Oct 10:00 AM Sep 4.90M 4.82M -

Source: OW Risk Management