Germany’s GDL train drivers’ union strike in passenger- as well as freight transport, set to last from Tuesday evening until Friday, will not only affect the state-owned rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DB). The standstill will also be felt by many companies in Germany which transport raw materials or goods via rail cargo.

In addition, the consequences will also be felt in neighboring countries, because nearly 60% of Deutsche Bahn’s freight transport services are carried out across Europe. Six out of 11 corridors for freight transport in Europe are running through Germany, according to the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV).

As Thomas Puls, of the German Economic Institute (IW), put it: “Germany is the logistical heart of Europe.”

Freight transport by train is essential

A large portion of goods, i.e. two thirds, are transported via roads in Germany; just under one fifth is transported by rail.

Nonetheless, freight transport by rail was very important, traffic expert Puls told DW: “Even if it‘s not that clear when we look at the market shares — a lot of rail transports cannot be processed in another way, or only with major difficulties.”

Large industries like the steel and chemical industry, for instance, are dependent on such transports. Without black coal, delivered by rail, neither the steel industry’s furnaces nor the power stations which secure production of electricity can be operated. With regard to several dangerous goods used in the chemical industry, rail transport is even required by law because of the reduced risk of accidents on trains.

Products used by the car industry as well as finished vehicles are loaded onto trains, too. All of the vehicles designated for export are transported by train to the international port of Bremerhaven, where they’re loaded onto car ships, Puls said. But what happens when trains are canceled? According to Puls, there are not enough car carrier trucks to transport such a number of vehicles via roads.

Other traffic routes also affected

As far as freight transport by rail is concerned, Deutsche Bahn is indeed the biggest service provider (with a market share of nearly 50%), but there are also a lot of private providers, covering the other half of freight transport services. Even if they’re not directly affected by the train drivers’ strike, they will likely feel the consequences.

“The longer the strike lasts, the more comprehensive are the negative effects for the entire industry, including rail companies whose drivers do not take part in the strike,” said Martin Henke, managing director of the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV).

As employees of Deutsche Bahn’s Tracks division, which is responsible for rail network operation and maintenance, and switch tower personnel have been called on to participate in the strike, there’ll be no train traffic on parts of the rail network, Henke presumed.

“As soon as the switch tower employees are on strike, everything comes to a halt. There won’t even be emergency traffic,” said Puls. “Without central traffic control, there’ll be no train traffic.”

This, however, was a scenario which had not materialized during the previous GDL strike, he added.

Fears of container jams in ports

Other parts of the logistics chain — such as ports — are also affected by the strike.

“As soon as ports run out of container storage space, there‘ll be huge problems,” Puls said.

At the port of Hamburg, for instance, most containers coming in on ships continue their journey by train. A switch to road transport is not a realistic option, according to Puls.

“Probably we don’t have enough trucks, and even if we had them, we would not be able to dispatch as many to Hamburg as are necessary to move the number of containers which are usually transported by rail out of the port,” he said.

Other European ports will also be affected, because on-schedule connections to ships cannot be upheld even after the end of the strike, Frank Huster, managing director of the Federal Association of Haulage and Logistics (DSLV), told DW.

Economic situation partially alleviates strike consequences

However, the currently sluggish economic activity helps to alleviate the effects of the strike. When industrial production is operating far below capacity, it is easier to postpone production if goods are not delivered on time, said Puls. Nonetheless, costs are obviously still incurred for rescheduling production and logistics chains.

Therefore, the financial ramifications of a three-day strike in rail freight transport are difficult to predict. In the current economic situation, production losses would probably only be imminent after longer strikes, Puls said.

Large companies were not completely unprepared, which would also alleviate negative effects of the strike. All in all, supply chains have become more resilient in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Huster said. Even in the absence of a strike it would not be unusual that a freight train was delayed for a day, he added, so the industry had certain buffers and had set up storehouses for emergency situations.

Due to the economic conditions, even the situation in ports is unlikely to reach critical levels fast.

“In a better economic climate we would, with trains not running, reach the absolute limit after approximately five days,” said Puls.

Cost hard to quantify

The costs of the three-day strike are difficult to quantify: Without actual production losses, the costs would not be deducible from any statistic, according to Puls. Analyses of previous strikes showed that they can cause losses of up to €100 million ($110 million) per day.

In addition, the freight transport strike is set to last for three days, but even afterwards traffic disruptions are likely. After the most recent one-day freight transport strike, several days passed before the jams were cleared up.

Obviously, a serious problem is that logistics experts lose confidence in rail freight transport, Huster said: Its reputation was already suffering severely due to repeated technical failures, an extremely decrepit railway network and continuing infrastructure problems. This is not a good starting position for the goal of transporting more goods by rail.

According to the 2021 German government coalition treaty, the market share of rail in freight transport is to increase to 25% by 2030. The current market share is 19%.
Source: Deutsche Welle