At the end of the 38th week, MABUX global bunker indices continued to fluctuate in different directions without a clear trend. The 380 HSFO index showed only a symbolic increase of 0.69 USD, moving from 452.10 USD/MT last week to 452.79 USD/MT, thus still remaining around the 450 USD mark. In contrast, the VLSFO index declined by 4.89 USD, falling from 540.52 USD/MT to 535.63 USD/MT. Meanwhile, the MGO index rose by 8.50 USD, climbing from 777.49 USD/MT to 785.99 USD/MT. At the time of writing, there are indications that a downward trend may be forming in the global bunker market.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—narrowed again by 5.58 USD, falling from 88.42 USD last week to 82.84 USD, and remains steadily below the psychological threshold of 100.00 USD (SS Breakeven). The weekly average also declined by 4.14 USD. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread held unchanged at 68.00 USD, while the port's weekly average posted a minor gain of 0.34 USD. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential increased by 4.00 USD, rising from 76.00 USD last week to 80.00 USD, but the weekly average at the port, on the contrary, dropped by 8.00 USD. Overall, the SS Spread indices continue to show no clear trend, with fluctuations moving in different directions. We believe that this dynamic is unlikely to undergo significant changes in the coming week, with conventional VLSFO expected to maintain higher profitability compared with the HSFO + Scrubber combination. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on mabux.com.
The EU has faced tense summers in recent years, with gas storage facilities running low and requiring urgent replenishment ahead of winter. At the same time, Europe has sharply reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas, cutting imports from more than 40% in 2021 to about 11% in 2024. This shift has forced the continent to build new supply chains, replacing Russian gas with increased imports from Norway and the United States. In the short term, the EU's gas situation looks manageable thanks to the rapid expansion of global LNG supply. Longer-term prospects are also favorable: global LNG production capacity is expected to rise from 550 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 649 bcm in 2026 and reach 890 bcm by 2030. The main driver of this growth is the United States, where gas exports surged 22% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 83 bcm. Global supply and demand for LNG are expected to balance in 2025, before shifting to a surplus of around 50 bcm in 2026 and as much as 200 bcm by 2030.
As of 16 September, European regional gas storage facilities were 80.83% full, reflecting a 1.20% increase compared to the previous week. Current occupancy levels stand 9.50% higher than at the beginning of the year (71.33%), although the pace of injections has shown a slight slowdown. By the end of the 38th week, the European gas benchmark TTF posted a minor decline of 0.602 euro/MWh, falling from 32.931 euro/MWh a week earlier to 32.329 euro/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) rose sharply by $61.00 by the end of the week, reaching 772 USD/MT compared to 711 USD/MT the week before. At the same time, the price spread between LNG and conventional fuel shifted back in favor of conventional fuel: minus 22 USD versus minus 51 USD in favor of LNG a week earlier. On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at 750 USD/MT in Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of mabux.com.
At the end of the 38th week, the updated MABUX Benchmark Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—showed the following dynamics across the world's largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All ports remained in the undervalued zone. Average weekly values increased by 2 points in Rotterdam and Singapore, by 7 points in Fujairah, but declined by 7 points in Houston.
• VLSFO segment: Houston continued to be the only overvalued port, although its average MDI level decreased by 5 points. The other ports remained undervalued. Average weekly undervaluation levels rose by 3 points in Rotterdam, 10 points in Singapore, and 13 points in Fujairah.
• MGO LS segment: all ports also stayed in the undervalued zone. MDI values fell by 4 points in Rotterdam, 6 points in Singapore, and 12 points in Houston, while Fujairah recorded a modest increase of 2 points.
Overall, no significant changes were observed in the distribution of overvalued and undervalued ports during the past week. MDI levels across all ports and fuel segments remain close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP, signaling relative stabilization in the global bunker market. However, the undervaluation trend continues to dominate, and we do not expect major fluctuations in MDI dynamics next week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section on mabux.com.
According to the latest report from Integr8 Fuels, the US sanctions packages introduced in January 2025 have radically reshaped logistics in the global bunker market. In particular, shipments from the Middle East have displaced Russian cargoes, leading to a “surge” in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) quality issues. The report also notes that US sanctions have caused a twofold increase in HSFO quality notifications in Singapore, while in the ARA region the share of off-spec results has reached 4% of all tests, compared to 2.3% at the end of last year. It is further emphasized that the introduction of the Mediterranean Emission Control Area (ECA) in May — requiring a sulphur content in bunker fuel of no more than 0.10% — has significantly altered the market structure. Thus, the share of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) has almost halved — from 60% in December 2024 to 35.6% in June 2025 — while demand for low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO) more than doubled, from 13% to 30%. The share of HSFO increased to 30.1% due to the use of scrubber-equipped vessels, while the share of ultra-low-sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) rose sharply from 0.3% to 4.1%. Although biofuels remain a niche product, demand for them is also gradually growing under the influence of the new ECA requirements and the European FuelEU Maritime (FEUM) regulation.
We believe that the global bunker market has currently reached a state of relative balance, and fuel prices are likely to continue fluctuating in different directions around present levels next week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX