A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Yesterday Crude prices continued to stay under pressure by a rallying US dollar and EIA Oil demand projections for the medium term which were revised downwards. However, crude was supported by a strong US equity market. The June WTI futures settled at $94.21/bbl, down -$0.96 and  Brent closed at $102.60/bbl  -$0.22 lower. The German economy barely grew in the first quarter (+0,1%) while France is in recession with a GDP at -0,2%. A lot of US economic data will be published  today with a particular eye on the April Industrial Production and Manufacturing to judge the state of the US economy.  The US Energy department will release its  Inventory report later today and the expectations are as follows: Crude +0.3 mbbl, Distillates +0.7 mbbl, Gasoline -0.8 mbbl. This morning, crude is trading -0,50 % down.

Fueloil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil markets softened yesterday. The main ports reported moderate demand and tight product avails with prompt deliveries not before the beginning of next week. Delivered 380cst product in Rotterdam was assessed nearly $5/mt down and a dollar lower in Antwerp.The Singapore fuel oil markets dropped more than -$3.25 during the morning Platts window yesterday. Bunker demand was said to be mixed with delivered bunker premiums seen app. $6.0 above cargo prices as crude further extended weakness after the window. This morning both markets are trading down.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Jun Jul Aug Q313 Q413 2014 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0,96) 94,21 ↓ 93,83 93,83 93,57 93,55 92,76 90,42 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0,22) 102,60 ↓ 101,97 101,72 101,41 101,41 100,47 98,55 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 0,00 860,75 ↓ 855,25 858,42 862,00 861,81 863,39 857,76 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 1,25 579,25 ↓ 571,25 569,50 568,00 569,00 564,75 561,00 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (0,75) 567,25 ↓ 565,00 563,75 562,50 561,50 556,50 557,25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (2,25) 599,75 ↓ 600,75 602,00 600,75 601,00 596,00 588,50 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0,04) 90,40 ↓ 89,70 89,45 89,20 89,45 88,95 88,20 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (3,25) 595,50 ↓ 593,25 592,75 591,50 592,00 588,50 585,25 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 1,25 861,50 ↓ 856,25 859,25 862,25 862,25 866,25 859,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (5,00) 583,00 ↓ 576,50 575,25 573,75 574,25 570,00 565,75 Physical Singapore 380 CST (4,00) 602,50 ↓ 600,50 599,50 598,25 598,25 594,75 592,00

Focus of the day: Singapore

Fears are easing about a possible shortage of fuel oil in the Singapore hub in June. Traders now expect a 'hefty' volume of fuel oil arbitrage arrivals in the second half of May. Latest estimates, as reported by Reuters, are for between 5.6 million and 5.7 million metric tonnes (mt) of material to arrive in Singapore before the end of the month. The volumes will soften the impact of an expected fall in arbitrage arrivals in June, when predictions are for just 4 million mt of material, most of it arriving in the second half of the month. Last week the traders said the market had begun to strengthen on the back of the low forecast for June. On Friday, however, traders said the June premiums were narrowing. Singapore onshore fuel oil stocks, meanwhile, rose to a nine-week high this week at 19.712 million barrels. Currently avails in Singapore are very healthy where prompt supplies are possible.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Retail Sales High 13-May 8:30 AM Apr -0.7% -0.4% 0.1% Business Inventories Medium 13-May 10:00 AM Mar 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Core PPI Medium 15-May 8:30 AM Apr 0.2% 0.2% - Empire Manufacturing Medium 15-May 8:30 AM May 1.0 3.1 - Industrial Production Medium 15-May 9:15 AM Apr -0.5% 0.4% - Initial Claims Medium 16-May 8:30 AM 11-May 335K 323K - Continuing Claims Medium 16-May 8:30 AM 11-May 3015K 3005K - Core CPI High 16-May 8:30 AM Apr 0.2% 0.1% - Housing Starts Medium 16-May 8:30 AM Apr 915K 1036K - Building Permits Medium 16-May 8:30 AM Apr 950K 902K - Philadelphia Fed Medium 16-May 10:00 AM May 2.0 1.3 - Mich Sentiment Medium 17-May 9:55 AM May 79.0 76.4 - Leading Indicators Medium 17-May 10:00 AM Apr 0.3% -0.1% -

Source: OW Risk Management