A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Yesterday we had another volatile day on Crude with a new multiple year low and a strong rebound into the close. The November WTI contract closed at $91.01/bbl up $0,29 while Brent settled at $93,42/bbl down -0,26 usd  from the previous day. Crude Oil was under massive pressure after the Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia national oil company,  stunned the market after announcing it was cutting prices by about $1 /bbl to Asia-the main growth market for Gulf producers- as well as by 40 cents/bbl to the US. Although some analysts believe this could be a “price war” between the OPEC members, the changes in price to Asian buyer could be more” a product demand for Saudi Arabian crude than a driver of it”. Saudi Arabia is definitely not interested in a price below $90/bbl for the long term. Yesterdays data from the US where disappointing with Factory Orders plummeting in August -10,1% and  Sep ISM Manufacturing at 57,1 vs 63,7 expected. The only possitive number was the Weekly Jobless claims well below the 300k at 287k. That is encouraging as the market is gearing up for another solid (?) Non Farm Payroll around +215k hence the short covering on Crude Oil position towards the close. This morning Crude is trading slightly up.

Fueloil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil prices fell yesterday following weaker Brent values. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam was assessed nearly $13/mt down vs previous close. Suppliers continuously reported tight product avails with most of them not able to supply HSFO before mid next week. Meanwhile, Singapore fuel oil prices lost app.$5.5/mt during the Asian Platts window. Front month bunker fuel oil swaps lost up to $18/mt for Rotterdam 3.5% fob barges and a few dollars less for Singapore 180cst fob. The backend of the forward curve was slightly stronger with Cal2015 papers assessed app.$14/mt down for both products. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Oct Nov Dec Q115 Q215 2015 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,29 91,01 ↑ 90,86 89,78 88,40 88,08 86,95 86,89 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0,26) 93,42 ↑ 93,90 94,43 95,26 95,79 96,31 95,65 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (22,50) 785,75 ↑ 794,50 797,33 800,25 - - - LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) - - ↑ - - - 817,08 825,58 828,54 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (21,75) 523,25 ↑ 523,25 515,25 513,25 518,75 521,75 522,00 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (16,75) 521,75 ↑ 519,75 513,00 511,00 516,75 519,75 519,75 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (17,50) 527,50 ↑ 528,25 521,75 520,50 526,50 530,50 531,25 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0,55) 80,60 ↑ 81,35 81,05 80,83 82,16 82,48 82,55 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (5,50) 546,25 ↑ 544,25 540,50 538,75 540,50 542,50 543,25 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (23,50) 783,00 ↑ 794,25 796,25 799,25 806,25 816,25 818,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (13,00) 535,50 ↑ 528,50 520,50 518,50 523,00 526,00 526,25 Physical Singapore 380 CST (5,00) 555,50 ↑ 549,50 545,75 544,00 545,75 547,75 548,50

Focus of the day: Piraeus

Crude market has been very volatile this week but overall average CIF MED 3.5% remained at the same levels as the previous week. The market in Piraeus was very active, following a stretch of reduced activity. Product availability is very good and both refineries are working normally. Loadings and supplies are proceeding smoothly and there are no disruptions expected. Almost all physical suppliers in the port are able to quote for prompt deliveries. We expect increased demand next week as well.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual PCE Prices- Core Medium 29-Sep 8:30 AM Aug 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Case- Shiller 20-city Index Medium 30-Sep 9:00 AM Jul 7.0% 8.1% 6.7% Chicago PMI Medium 30-Sep 9:45 AM Sep 59.0 64.3 60.5 Consumer Confidence High 30-Sep 10:00 AM Sep 93.0 92.4 86.0 ADP Employment Change High 1-Oct 8:15 AM Sep 225K 204K 213K ISM Index High 1-Oct 10:00 AM Sep 60.0 59.0 56.6 Construction Spending Medium 1-Oct 10:00 AM Aug 0.5% 1.8% -0.8% Initial Claims Medium 2-Oct 8:30 AM 27-sep 300K 293K 287K Factory Orders Medium 2-Oct 10:00 AM Aug -9.5% 10.5% -10.1% Nonfarm Payrolls High 3-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 245K 142K - Unemployment Rate High 3-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 6.1% 6.1% - ISM Services Medium 3-Oct 10:00 AM Sep 59.0 59.6 -

Source:: OW Risk Management