A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

After a weak start of the day, crude prices managed to settle slightly higher last Friday. The November WTI contract closed at $85.82/bbl, up +$0.05 while Brent inched +$0.16 to $90.21/bbl. Market drivers remain to favor strong supply amidst a weak demand . Libyan production is reported at 0.8 mbpd and may ramp up to 1.0 mbpd as the geopolitical tensions in Iraq have generally left production undisrupted. Market underlying fundamentals are likely to stay weak, unless a colder than expected winter and a possibility of OPEC intervening via a reduction of production will stem the current price weakness. Last week Iran announced to sell oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount in almost 6 years, matching the previous cuts by Saudi Arabia and fighting for market share. Kuwait’s oil minister reportedly said on Sunday that OPEC is unlikely to cut production to support falling prices. Supporting, Saudi officials have recently said that OPEC’s largest producer was comfortable with price level below $90/bbl, and maybe even down to $80/bbl, for a year or two. In the US, despite stronger economic data recently, the US Federal Reserve has signaled concerns over weaker economic growth elsewhere namely; the Eurozone and China which could delay a possible rate hike. This morning, China reported better than expected trade data with Exports rising 15.3% (11.8% exp.) in September from a year earlier while Imports were at 7% (2.7% exp.). However, the numbers did little to restore any market confidence and crude prices continue trading down. Please note that the US markets are closed for Columbus Day today and will reopen tomorrow.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets closed the week with continuously tight avails for hsfo products. Suppliers were able to offer only small volumes though the situation is expected to improve during the week. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam lost nearly $10 compared to previous close. The Singapore fuel oil prices plunged more than $17.5 during the Asian Platts window last Friday tracking crude drop. The delivered bunker premiums were seen $11.0-8.50 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading down.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Nov Dec Jan Q115 Q215 2015 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,05 85,82 ↓ 83,55 83,23 83,03 82,86 82,74 83,09 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 0,16 90,21 ↓ 89,00 89,49 90,01 90,91 91,58 92,23 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 0,00 763,75 ↓ 760,58 763,25 774,75 - - - LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) - - ↓ - - - 780,75 789,11 792,80 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (11,50) 482,75 ↓ 469,75 468,50 472,75 475,75 482,25 484,50 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (9,25) 486,00 ↓ 467,75 465,50 467,25 473,75 480,25 482,25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE (10,50) 491,50 ↓ 477,00 475,75 480,00 483,25 491,00 494,00 3% no. 6 USGC WB 0,00 74,60 ↓ 73,70 73,58 73,83 74,28 75,13 75,95 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (17,50) 503,75 ↓ 496,75 495,75 497,25 499,25 504,25 507,00 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (5,75) 758,75 ↓ 760,25 762,25 774,25 769,25 778,25 781,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (10,00) 495,50 ↓ 480,00 478,75 483,00 484,00 490,50 492,75 Physical Singapore 380 CST (16,50) 513,00 ↓ 507,00 506,00 507,50 507,50 512,50 515,25

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Retail Sales High 15-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.2% 0.6% - Core PPI Medium 15-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 0.1% 0.1% - Empire Manufacturing Medium 15-Oct 8:30 AM Oct 20.0 27.5 - Business Inventories Medium 15-Oct 10:00 AM Aug 0.5% 0.4% - Intial Claims Medium 16-Oct 8:30 AM 11-Oct 295K 287K - Industrial Production Medium 16-Oct 9:15 AM Sep 0.5% -0.1% - Philadelphia Fed Medium 16-Oct 10:00 AM Oct 15.0 22.5 - Housing Starts Medium 17-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 975K 956K - Building Permits Medium 17-Oct 8:30 AM Sep 1000K 998K - Michigan Sentiment High 17-Oct 9:55 AM Oct 83.5 84.6 -

Source: OW Risk Management