Crude values have fallen 16% to $63 a barrel since last week’s US tariff bombshell. Geopolitical shocks and coordinated producer cuts offer ways to stop the rot. But President Trump’s preference for low oil prices, plus OPEC indiscipline, are reasons to brace for fresh declines.

Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China said on April 4 that it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods, confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war has begun.

Eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly agreed on April 3 to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.

The May hike is the next increment of a plan agreed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman to gradually unwind their most recent output cut of 2.2 million bpd, which came into effect in April.

OPEC+ also has 3.65 million bpd of other output cuts in place until the end of 2026 to support the market.

U.S. President Trump announced a broad range of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on April 2.

Brent futures traded at $74.95 a barrel at market close on April 2.
Source: Reuters