LNG shipping stocks surged last week, with the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) climbing 2.98% to 166.96 points, returning above a key support level and approaching long-term resistance near 170. Higher trading volume accompanied the move, signaling renewed investor engagement amid an otherwise narrow trading band. Technical indicators, including a break above weekly moving averages and the backdrop of a new EU–US LNG agreement, suggest a potential shift toward further upside. Gains were concentrated in Japanese shipping companies—“K” Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and NYK Line—while Chevron and Exmar also contributed. Shell and Tsakos Energy Navigation posted modest advances, but declines in New Fortress Energy and Excelerate Energy offset some of the broader strength. With several stocks nearing significant resistance levels, the sector is poised for decisive movement in the weeks ahead.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, gained 4.83 points (2.98%), closing at 166.96 points, while the S&P 500 index gained 1.46%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Week 30-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)
Broader view
UPI experienced significant growth amid increased volume and returned above the previously broken support level. And that’s not all! Thanks to the very narrow range, this growth was enough to bring it very close to the long-term resistance level of around 170 points.
The narrowness of this band, i.e., the movement from support to resistance within a week, indicates the fragility of the current situation. However, given the aforementioned higher volume and the time of year, we still believe that an upward movement is more likely.
Last week, we focused on the UPI and Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, as the UPI approached the rapidly rising Bollinger Band (BB) Down. However, the situation is now essentially the opposite, as the sharp rise after weeks of insignificant movements brought the index close to BBUp. We will focus on this in this week’s chart. On the moving average chart, the UPI has surpassed both the MA 10 and MA 40 (weekly equivalents to the daily standards MA 50 and MA 200). This also points to further growth. The EU-US agreement, which involves increased sales of US LNG to Europe, will support this trend.
Constituents
On closer inspection, the situation is slightly different, as the growth of the UPI is mainly driven by the development of Japanese companies. These grew by over six per cent – “K” Line (TSE: 9107) and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) and by just under four per cent for NYK Line (TSE: 9101). NYK Line and “K” Line reached the resistance level, while MOL rebounded strongly from the support level. It still has some way to go to reach resistance, while the previous two are waiting to test these significant levels.
Other gains were around 3.5% and concerned Exmar (BSE: EXM) and Chevron (NYQ: CVX). While this movement is essentially insignificant for Exmar, Chevron is preparing to test resistance at $155 and possibly continue its upward trend—it is worth watching, as are the Japanese companies.
Shell (NYQ: SHEL) is progressing somewhat more reluctantly, adding 2.4% and rebounding slightly from resistance during the week. No wonder, as it is close to last summer’s levels, which it has failed to break through in four months. It is also worth watching.
Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYQ: TEN) appears to be struggling with further growth, achieving a more modest development of 1.8% during the week. However, attempts at greater growth were rejected, and a sideways trend is likely to form with levels of $18.80 and $21.
New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE) and Excelerate Energy (NYQ: EE) led the decline. The former lost 17.4% and the latter 10.4%. While we have become accustomed to high volatility in recent weeks with NFE, Excelerate Energy’s decline has led to uncertainty. This is a continuation of the decline that began in June, when the price rebounded from resistance at $32 and has not stopped since. If it does not stop at the current level of $ 23.80-$ 23.20, it could continue down to $20-$ 18.
Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYQ: CCEC) is also approaching resistance, having fallen 4.2% from its peak last week on increased volume, so we expect further significant movement.
Korea Line Corporation (KRX:005880) has lost nearly 2% and is falling for the second consecutive week, but this may be a correction to the initial growth trend.
Flex LNG (NYQ/OSE: FLNG) is exhibiting vigorous trading activity, resisting declines for the fourth consecutive week by taking advantage of lower prices to buy. As a result, it is up 0.2% this week, but there is likely accumulation beneath the surface.
Dynagas LNG Partners (NYQ: DLNG) is satisfied with its price, which is moving sideways with a 1.4% loss, but with significant wicks and shadows on both sides. The Golar LNG (NYQ: GLNG) price is similarly spiky, but is moving slightly downward near historical resistance, losing 1.1% in the last week.
Hidden underlying trends are beginning to emerge. We expect further manifestations of these trends to be favourable for companies in the UP index.
Crystal Ball
Despite the growing global uncertainty caused by the US administration, our outlook remains optimistic. However, we expect increased volatility in the coming weeks. LNG spot rates rise, but the impact remains marginal for most UPI constituents. The market is watching for potential breakouts at key resistance levels, which could determine the next direction of prices.
Our outlook remains steadfastly positive in the long term. The burgeoning demand for LNG, bolstered by situational or management-driven actions and the potential for new long-term contracts, paints a promising picture. Investors should watch policy developments, market competition, and upcoming corporate earnings for further direction.
Source: By Tomas Novotny, UP-Indices.com