Russia plans to take offline 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity in October, an increase of 67% from an earlier plan, increasing the amount of crude oil available for export, Reuters calculations based on data from industry sources show.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, which include Russia, (OPEC+) has said Russia has already produced above quotas agreed to support the market.

Moscow promised to provide compensation for overproduction during 2024-2025, but its exports have been volatile and dependent on domestic refining.

In September idle capacity was 4.5 million tons, which was also an increase – of 0.6 million tons – versus previous estimates.

The October revision follows a halt in oil processing at Rosneft’s ROSN.MM Black Sea oil plant in Tuapse since Oct. 1, postponed maintenance at the Novokuibyshev refinery and maintenance at the CDU-6 unit at Lukoil’s NORSI oil plant.

The greatest changes are from Russia’s western ports. Exports from the east are normally stable and close to maximum due to high profitability of the route.

Oil loadings from the western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk, are expected to rise by 5% from September to 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) following the revision to the previous plan.

Russia’s January-October cumulative idle oil refining capacity has reached 36.7 million tons, up from 30.9 million in the same period in 2023, the calculations showed.

For November, Russia’s idle primary oil refining capacity is seen at 1.2 million tons, but that too may rise to 1.8 million tons if maintenance is extended, according to Reuters calculations and data from industry sources.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; editing by Barbara Lewis)