Analysis of US EIA data: U.S. crude oil stock rise tempered by low imports, increased refinery runs
Friday, 28 February 2014 | 00:00
A drop in crude oil imports and an increase in refinery utilization rates last week kept U.S. crude oil stockpiles fairly muted, rising just 100,000 barrels to 362.4 million barrels while gasoline stocks dropped, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.Analysts polled by Platts were anticipating a 1.5 million-barrel build in crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended February 21.
The slight build in total stocks puts crude oil at a 3.1% surplus to the EIA five-year average, down from 3.6% surplus the week ended February 14. The surplus has narrowed since reaching 13.3% on November 22, 2013.
While analysts were expecting a further drop in refinery utilization rates on continued maintenance, rates actually rose 1.2 percentage points to 88% of capacity the week ended February 21.
During that time, maintenance continued at Tesoro's 166,000 barrels per day (b/d) Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, after a gasoline unit was shut the week ended February 14, Platts has reported. But Shell had started up an unspecified unit at its own, 165,000 b/d refinery in Martinez on February 19. Shell had previously shut an unspecified unit January 25, though it remained unclear whether the two incidents were related.
Marathon Petroleum was also said to have completed planned maintenance at its 522,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, according to an analyst report.
Refinery utilization rates rose 2.3 percentage points to 77.4% of capacity on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) and were up 0.9 percentage point in the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) to 88.3% of capacity the week ended February 21.
At the same time, crude oil imports fell 384,000 b/d to 7.04 million b/d the week ended February 21 and were off by more than 920,000 b/d from year-ago levels.
A drop in crude oil imports from Kuwait by 357,000 b/d to 482,000 b/d accounted for the bulk of the total decline. Mexican imports declined 219,000 b/d to 655,000 b/d the week ended February 21, EIA data showed.
Import levels were expected to have been hampered after vessel boardings in the Houston Ship Channel were suspended due to fog for much of the week ended February 21.
On February 17, a total of 75 vessels – 53 inbound and 22 outbound – were affected by the suspension. Early Wednesday, however, boardings resumed for both inbound and outbound vessels after rain helped to lift the fog.
USGC imports fell 150,000 b/d to 3.43 million b/d, while U.S. Midwest imports shrank to 1.82 million b/d from 1.97 million b/d the week ended February 14.
As the total crude oil stock build was minimal, inventories at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell for the fourth consecutive week, down 1.08 million barrels to 34.79 million barrels. The draw puts Cushing stocks at a 7.16% deficit to the EIA five year average.
U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS DIP, IMPORTS DROP
U.S. gasoline stocks fell 2.8 million barrels to 230.6 million barrels the week ended February 21. Analysts were calling for a 1.5 million-barrel draw.
Despite the draw, stocks were still about 2.67 million barrels above the EIA five-year average.
Implied demand* for the fuel rose 505,000 b/d to 8.54 million b/d the week ended February 21 and was up 62,000 b/d from the same period in 2013, while gasoline imports sank to 276,000 b/d from 410,000 b/d.
On the USAC -- home of the New York delivery point for NYMEX RBOB -- gasoline stocks fell 1.8 million barrels to 61.2 million barrels. That puts the region’s stocks just slightly below the EIA five-year average of 61.38 million barrels.
U.S. distillate stocks rose 300,000 barrels to 113.1 million barrels, counter to analysts’ expectations of a 2 million-barrel drop.
EIA data showed that implied demand for distillates was slightly lower, down 7,000 b/d to 3.617 million b/d. Still, demand remains above year-ago levels and was up 114,000 b/d from the same week in 2013.
Total distillate imports fell slightly, down 14,000 b/d to 315,000 b/d the week ended February 21, but were 156,000 b/d above year-ago levels.
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) imports plunged, falling to 82,000 b/d from 249,000 b/d for the week ended February 14.
USAC combined low and ULSD stocks at 18.701 million barrels for the week ended February 21 were about 27.5% below the EIA five-year average. They’ve narrowed from a deficit of more than 34% just two weeks earlier.
Stocks were 21.404 million barrels around the same week in 2013.
Torbjorn Kjus, an oil market analyst at DNB Bank, said, "weather forecasts in the U.S. are calling for colder-than-normal temperatures next week ... and likely continue to support the U.S. oil market for another week.”
* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts