Dutch and British gas prices were mixed on Monday morning, as Norwegian maintenance outages hit their peak, gas storage sites continue to fill, and amid mediation talks to avert strikes at Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities.
The Dutch October contract rose 0.35 euro to 36.05 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0810 GMT, while the day-ahead contract was 2.37 euro higher at 34.00 euros/MWh, according to LSEG Eikon data.
In the British market, the within-day contract was up by 1.40 pence at 85 pence/therm, while day-ahead contract was down 2.50 pence at 84.50 p/therm.
Norwegian gas exports dropped by more than 40 million cubic metres (mcm) per day to the lowest levels observed in several years of around 129 mcm/d, LSEG analyst Ulrich Weber said in a morning report.
In addition to planned maintenance at the massive Troll field and key processing plant Kollsnes, there were also unexpected outages scheduled to end on Tuesday at the Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin fields, Gassco data showed.
“From here on out, every day should see a two figure increase of flows, assuming no further extensions to these maintenances,” LSEG’s Weber said.
Europe’s gas stocks are currently around 93.1% full, latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.
High storage levels suppressed short-term prices, but the divergence between spot and futures indicates an underlying tension and uncertainty in the market, analysts Bjarne Schjeldrop and Ole Hvalbye at SEB said in a research note.
North-East Asia was likely to outbid Europe for LNG cargoes, while disruptions in Australian LNG exports and Norwegian maintenance further complicated the supply chain, they added.
“As winter approaches, these variables suggest a volatile market, potentially leading to higher European gas prices in the foreseeable future,” the analysts said.
TTF prices from December onwards are currently trading at above 50 euros/MWh.
There is a risk of industrial action at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities in Australia from Thursday if mediation talks fail, which could increase competition for LNG cargoes between Asia and Europe.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract eased by 0.56 euro to 84.74 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters