Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket in April increased 12¢ to $104.27/b, amid marginal improvements in most component values. Crude prices were supported by firmer refining margins, ongoing supply outages, and the return of some refineries from maintenance. On average, Nymex WTI gained $1.53 to $102.03/b and ICE Brent increased 34¢ to $108.09/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month with an average of around $6.05/b, the narrowest since September 2013.

World Economy
World economic growth in 2014 remains at 3.4%, following growth of 2.9% in 2013. The OECD growth forecast remains at 2.0%, with the US revised down and the Euro-zone slightly higher. China’s growth forecast remains at 7.5% and India’s at 5.6%. The main lift for 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets are slowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies – mainly the US and Japan – the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to the downside.

World Oil Demand
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d to reach 91.15 mb/d in 2014, unchanged from the previous report. Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seen coming from China and the Middle East. The estimate for world oil demand in 2013 was unchanged at 90.01 mb/d, representing growth of 1.05 mb/d over the previous year.

World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2014 was revised up marginally to stand at 1.38 mb/d. The estimate for 2013 was also adjusted slightly higher to stand at 1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGLs were revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both 2013 and 2014 to stand at 5.66 mb/d and 5.81 mb/d respectively. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources, averaged 29.59 mb/d in April, representing an increase of 131 tb/d.

Product Markets and Refining Operations
Product markets in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in April, driven by developments at the top of the barrel. Stronger gasoline demand in the US and higher export opportunities to South America led to a sharp recovery in margins. In Asia, the uptick was partially limited by the continued weakness at the bottom of the barrel.

Tanker Market
Freight rates declined in April, with both dirty and clean tankers losing ground. Lower tonnage demand, refinery maintenance and holidays were the main factors behind the decline in spot freight rates. The clean tanker market was influenced by similar factors, with the East of Suez market down 4.5% and the West of Suez declining 21.5%.

Stock Movements
OECD commercial stocks declined in March, driven mainly by products as crude saw a build. The deficit with the five-year average stood at 115 mb, split between crude and products. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 56.8 days, around 0.2 days less than the five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows US commercial oil stocks jumped by 47.1 mb, but remained in line with the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 and 2014 saw an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d each compared to the previous report. At 30.1 mb/d, demand for OPEC crude in 2013 stood 0.4 mb/d lower than in the previous year. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is forecast at 29.8 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from the 2013 level.
Source: OPEC