Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data
Friday, 19 September 2014 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks grew 3.67 million barrels to 362.27 million barrels during the reporting week ended September 12, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.Analysts surveyed Monday by Platts had expected a 400,000-barrel draw.The U.S. West Coast (USWC) was the main driver of the weekly build, as stocks there rose 2.32 million barrels to 52.34 million barrels.
One factor helping push USWC stocks higher was a decrease in crude oil runs, which fell 82,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 2.37 million b/d. Imports were down 11,000 b/d to 1.18 million b/d, according to the EIA data.
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) stocks fell 667,000 barrels to 188.6 million barrels.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract -- slid 357,000 barrels to 20 million barrels. Analysts had expected Cushing stocks to fall 1.25 million barrels. Cushing stocks are 41.7% lower than the five-year average for the same reporting week.
The shape of the NYMEX crude oil futures contract is currently backwardated*, which serves as a disincentive for storing crude oil at Cushing because prices for front-month delivery are higher than more distant delivery dates.
Total U.S. crude oil imports rose 493,000 b/d to 8.11 million b/d, EIA said. Imports from Canada were 57,000 b/d higher at 2.99 million b/d. Imports from Saudi Arabia increased 53,000 b/d to 1.31 million b/d.
Total U.S. crude oil runs declined 28,000 b/d to 16.30 million b/d, helping lower the refinery utilization rate 0.9 percentage point to 93% of total capacity. Analysts had expected a 0.6 percentage-point drop.
On the USGC, which is home to more than 50% of total U.S. operable capacity, the regional refinery utilization rate fell 1.6 percentage points to 93.4% of capacity, as crude oil runs decreased 23,000 b/d to 8.47 million b/d.
GASOLINE STOCKS FALL
EIA data showed U.S. gasoline stocks fell 1.64 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels the week ended September 12 amid lower production and higher demand. Analysts had been looking for a much smaller, 300,000-barrel decline.
Refiner and blender net production of gasoline fell 257,000 b/d to 9.24 million b/d, while implied demand** rose 96,000 b/d to 8.71 million b/d.
The four-week moving average of EIA data puts gasoline demand at 8.98 million b/d, slightly higher than in the same period a year ago.
Stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract -- fell 2.54 million barrels to 54.6 million barrels.
The draw came amid a further reduction in imports, which fell to just 297,000 b/d the week ended September 12. This time last year, imports averaged 455,000 b/d. Blending and production also fell, sliding 100,000 b/d to 2.93 million b/d.
USAC imports were less than half the 700,000 b/d imported in the week ended August 29.
An uptick in exports could have also helped draw down stocks. Platts cFlow ship-tracking software shows one tanker -- the Cape Bellavista, chartered by Shell -- left Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, the week ended September 12, headed to Gamba, Gabon. However, it is unclear what the tanker is carrying.
Lately, West African buyers have been importing summer-grade gasoline from European refiners as much of the northern hemisphere looks to unload off-specification product ahead of the switch to winter-grade material.
Weekly EIA data shows U.S. gasoline exports held steady at 362,000 b/d for the fourth straight week, consistent with the more accurate monthly data for June.
DISTILLATE STOCKS RISE
EIA data showed U.S. distillate stocks rose 279,000 barrels to 127.77 million barrels. Analyst had expected stocks to remain flat.
U.S. production dropped below 5 million b/d for the first time in three weeks, sliding 191,000 b/d to 4.91 million b/d. Implied demand rallied, however, to increase 427,000 b/d to 3.83 million b/d. But on a four-week moving average, implied demand was steadier at just above 3.7 million b/d for the second-straight week.
Combined low- and ultra-low-sulfur diesel stocks on the USAC rose 489,000 barrels to 34.75 million barrels, meaning inventories were almost 18.5% above the five-year average and amply supplied heading into the U.S. Northeast winter-heating-demand season.
Combined stocks on the USGC fell 532,000 barrels to 32.27 million barrels. This puts USGC stocks at a more than a 20.5% deficit to the five-year average.
Platts cFlow shows six clean tankers left the USGC the week ended September 12 headed for Northwest Europe, while one tanker was headed for the Mediterranean. Exports to Latin America were steady, with one tanker headed to Argentina and three headed to Brazil. Four clean tankers left for the west coast of South America.
* Backwardation is the industry vernacular for the condition whereby prices for nearby delivery are higher than prices for future-month delivery.
**Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts