There is no doubt that the decline in carriers’ financials for 2018 is not just due to excess capacity and the U.S. instigated trade war but also as a result of the lower growth rate this year in demand for goods. With the first six months of trade flows now firm it has become clear that the Asia to North Europe trade is weaker than most had anticipated earlier this year. Our forecast this month results in a reduction in the rate of growth for the year as a whole.

The Europe-wide import forecast for 2018 is down from last month’s 6.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent, while North Europe is down from 3.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The Europe-wide export forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 4.8 per cent while North Europe is down from 4.7 per cent to 3.9 per cent. For imports to North Europe 2018 growth is projected to be similar to last year. Exports are well down on the previous year.

The CesIFO Group, which forecasts the German economy in-depth has warned in its latest forecast that there “are storm clouds on the horizon” and the economic growth impetus has fizzled. We have been warning of this for some months now and with the latest comments by forecasting institutions the penny has dropped. One bright spot might be that the reduction in China-U.S. trade may result in an increase in shipments to Europe from China as it looks for alternate markets without additional tariffs of 25 per cent. At the port level, Hamburg is the big winner going as THE Alliance has announced it intends to shift its cargo on the North Atlantic from Bremen to Hamburg with an estimated annual volume of 500,000 TEU (the announcement was made too late for it to be included in this month’s forecast).

This will partly help to replace the loss of Baltic transshipment volumes. The recent news that CMA CGM has increased its share in the Zeebrugge terminal with Cosco could result in a shift of cargo, but much depends on the 3PLs who prefer Antwerp. Looking forward to 2019 we continue to expect a mild downturn in the growth rates and possibly a mild recession and this is without taking account the mess that London and Brussels are making of Brexit.

Preliminary figures indicate that total container volumes across the six-port range decreased by 60,000 TEUs (or 1.6 per cent) in June compared to May with 3.75 million TEUs, which would equate to a 6.0 per cent year-on-year increase.

For incoming volumes, preliminary June data indicates that the ports of Bremen/Bremerhaven and Zeebrugge experienced increases in volume over May. All changes were in the single-digit percentage range. In terms of year-on-year growth, every port except Zeebrugge is anticipated to have posted an increase, with Rotterdam experiencing a double-digit percentage gain. The North Range is anticipated to have posted a 2.0 per cent slide from May and a 6.7 per cent increase year-on-year.

For outgoing volumes, preliminary data indicates that the ports of Hamburg, Bremen/Bremerhaven, and Le Havre experienced a single-digit percentage increase over the previous month. In terms of yearon-year growth, Rotterdam experienced a doubledigit increase while the rest experienced singledigit changes. The North Range is projected to have posted a 1.2 per cent decrease from May and a 5.3 per cent gain year-on-year.

Total imports to Europe decreased by 1.9 per cent in June, with a 0.2 per cent dip in North Europe (down 2.6 per cent year-on-year) and a 4.4 per cent decrease in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (up 5.0 per cent year-on-year).

Total exports from Europe dipped by 0.9 per cent in June, with a 0.1 per cent gain in North Europe (up 8.9 per cent year-on-year) and a 2.5 per cent decrease in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region (up 6.6 per cent year-on-year).

For 2018, loaded incoming volumes across the North Range are projected to post a 2.7 per cent increase while loaded outgoing volumes are forecast to post a 3.3 per cent increase.

For 2018, total imports to Europe are forecast to increase by 4.6 per cent, with a 2.2 per cent gain anticipated in North Europe and an 8.7 per cent increase projected in the Med-Black Sea region. Exports are forecast to increase by 4.8 per cent across Europe, with a 3.9 per cent gain in North Europe and a 6.4 per cent gain in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region.

The North American edition of the Global Port Tracker reported an increase of 15,000 TEUs in June. The combined import volume at the monitored West Coast ports surged by 13,000 TEUs between May and June, which equates to a 1.1 per cent gain month-on-month and an 8.1 per cent jump year-on-year. The combined import volume at the monitored East Coast ports increased by 0.5 per cent (or 4,000 TEUs) in June, for a 6.5 per cent year-on-year gain. The forecast for 2018 projects a 4.4 per cent increase over 2017 with 24.44 million TEUs.
Source: Hackett Associates, North Europe Port Tracker