OPEC has nudged down the “call” on OPEC+ crude for 2025 and 2026, but still sees demand for its oil at around 1 million b/d higher than current levels, indicating much room for the alliance to keep hiking production quotas without tipping the market into surplus.
In the latest edition of its closely watched monthly oil market report, released July 15, the secretariat in Vienna retained its global demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.3 million b/d, but trimmed the quantity of crude OPEC+ must produce to balance the market in 2025 and 2026 by 200,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, respectively, compared to June’s estimate.
The call is now estimated at 42.5 million b/d this year and 42.9 million b/d in 2026, while its estimate of supply from non-OPEC+ countries — especially in the Americas — was held flat.
When OPEC+ crude and NGLs are combined, the secretariat sees the alliance supplying 49% of total liquids in 2026.
This follows speculation that the swing producer has swapped a price defense strategy for a market share approach, with eight members implementing 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts, rapidly phasing them out this year, in spite of volatility and tariff-induced demand fears.
To that end, OPEC+ recorded a significant month-over-month jump in crude output in June of 349,000 b/d, according to secondary sources used by OPEC to estimate and monitor output, driven by a 173,000 b/d hike by Saudi Arabia to a two-year high of 9.36 million b/d.
Saudi Arabia, which is the alliance’s biggest producer, self-reported two numbers — 9.75 million b/d for production and 9.36 million b/d for “supply to market” — after taking contingency measures in June at the height of the Israel-Iran conflict to redirect supplies and activate pipelines, amid fears for global crude supply, particularly through the pivotal Strait of Hormuz.
The supply to market figure includes volumes that are commercially sold or consumed domestically, while excluding movements in and out of storage.
Platts OPEC+ survey, one of several secondary sources, estimated Saudi Arabia’s crude production at 9.54 million b/d.
Although OPEC+ output rose to 41.56 million b/d in June, according to the report, it remains well below the “call” on the alliance’s crude for 2025 and 2026, reflecting what OPEC describes as tight fundamentals.
In a feature story to open the report, the secretariat noted that physical market fundamentals “remained robust, with global oil supply and demand broadly balanced”, adding that refiners had stepped up crude intake ahead of the summer driving season in June.
That balance came despite the “heightened volatility” in crude prices this year, “largely driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as uncertainty surrounding US trade policy toward key economic partners.”
The producer group also noted persistently low crude inventories, with officials long pointing out that the market remains in backwardation through 2025, suggesting strong near-term demand.
OECD commercial crude and product stocks in May were down 34.5 million barrels month over month at 2.77 billion barrels, OPEC said, putting them some 128 million barrels below the latest five-year average.
Of that, crude stocks were 1.36 billion barrels, 56.9 million barrels below the five-year mean.
OPEC also struck a bullish tone on the prospect for the world economy, noting that “India, China and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year.”
“With this, the [H2 2025] economic growth may turn out better than currently expected,” the report noted.
Supply overhang
Crude prices have remained relatively strong in 2025, despite four successive months of accelerated production hikes by the eight OPEC+ voluntary cutters, including de facto leaders of the alliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia. On July 5, they announced plans to hike quotas in August by 548,000 b/d.
Platts last assessed Dated Brent at $71.46/b on July 14.
Referencing the quota hikes, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told journalists in Vienna last week that low stocks showed “the market needed those barrels,” adding that the alliance’s read of the market was “deeper than what is perceived.”
However, many analysts continue to predict a significant supply overhang in late 2025, with compensation plans for previous overproduction still preventing some key producers — including Iraq — from raising production in line with quotas, as well as the end of seasonal demand trends.
Source: Platts