Oil futures surged in mid-June by $5/bbl to a nine-month high of more than $115/bbl for Brent as Islamist forces gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed their gains on confidence that Baghdad’s southern fields would remain untouched and improved prospects for a recovery in Libyan exports. Brent last traded at $108/bbl, WTI at $102/bbl.

OPEC supplies were virtually unchanged in June at 30.03 mb/d, as lower Iraqi production offset gains in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. The ‘call’ on OPEC for 2H14 was cut by 350 kb/d to 30.6 mb/d on improved non-OPEC supply and lower demand, and is forecast to dip to 29.8 mb/d in 2015 from 29.9 mb/d in 2014.

Non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2015, down slightly on 2013 and 2014 forecast levels. Global supplies were largely unchanged month-on-month in June, at 92.6 mb/d, but 995 kb/d higher than a year ago. Annual non-OPEC output growth of 1.7 mb/d more than offset OPEC declines of 765 kb/d.

Global oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.4 mb/d in 2015 from 1.2 mb/d in 2014, as macroeconomic conditions improve. The estimate of 2014 demand has been trimmed by 130 kb/d to 92.7 mb/d following weaker-than-expected mid-year economic data.

Global refinery crude runs dipped below year-earlier levels in June, for the first time since October. Planned and unplanned outages, capacity rationalisation and weak margins cut runs by 0.9 mb/d on the year, to 76.8 mb/d. The 2Q14 estimate has been lowered by 0.3 mb/d, to 76.2 mb/d, while the 3Q14 forecast is unchanged, at 77.8 mb/d

OECD commercial oil inventories built by a steeper-than-usual 44.2 mb in May, to 2 639 mb. Their deficit to the five-year average narrowed to 69.6 mb from a revised 106.1 mb at end-April. Refined products covered 29.0 days of demand at end-May, up 0.4 days on the month. Preliminary data show that OECD stocks rose by 8.3 mb in June.
Source: IEA