British and Dutch prompt wholesale gas prices were mixed on Thursday on healthy inventories and stable weather forecast for Europe with warmer weather and strong wind, however, it is expected to be slightly cooler in Britain next week.
The Dutch front-month contract was up 0.85 euros at 65.85 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1021 GMT, while the contract for April delivery fell by 1.50 euros to 69.00 euros/MWh, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
The British within-day contract fell by 1.00 pence to 135 p/therm, while the front-month contract rose 0.20 p to 155 p/therm, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
“Warm temperatures and strong winds since mid-December have not only led to lower wholesale prices for gas but also lowered gas consumption and filled up national gas reserves again,” analysts at ING Economics said in a report.
“Unless the continent gets caught out by a severe winter in the coming months, the risk of an energy supply crisis has become extremely low,” they added.
Warmer than normal temperatures across Northwestern Central Europe are expected to remain at least for the coming two weeks, while major changes towards a colder-than-normal scenario are not likely to occur before Jan. 20, according to Refinitiv Meteorologist, George Muller.
But in the UK, weather forecast is adjusting towards slightly cooler for the next week, raising demand for heating.
European gas storage was 83.4% full on Jan. 3, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Total piped exports from Norway are nominated at 341 mcm/d up from 330 mcm/d on Wednesday, supported by the end of maintenance at Karsto gas processing plant.
British local distribution zone gas demand, which is primarily used for heating, was forecast at 147 million cubic metres (mcm) for Thursday, rising by 7 mcm to 156 mcm on the day ahead and 6 mcm higher to 187 mcm in the working days next week, reflecting the cooler forecast.
The British gas system was 6 mcm oversupplied, National Grid data showed.
Peak wind generation is forecast at almost Gigawatts (GW) on Thursday, rising to 18.5 GW on Friday, out of a total metered capacity of 22 GW, Elexon data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 rose by 1.3 euros to 79.1 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting By Marwa Rashad; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)