Oil exports and transit from Russia’s western ports in May are seen rising amid lower crude runs at domestic oil plants, while softening OPEC+ production limitations may have a limited impact on Moscow’s export plans, trade and industry sources said.

Overall loadings from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk next month may rise to an average 2.0 million-2.1 million barrels per day from some 1.9 million bpd planned for April, they added.

This is up by some 5-10% on a daily basis, Reuters calculations showed.

“Refinery runs may fall by some 80,000-100,000 barrels per day on weak margins. A stronger rouble and lower damper payments are having a negative impact. The price of oil for delivery to domestic oil plants is also going down, but at a lower pace,” an industry source said.

Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity in May is expected to be little changed from April at around 3.0 million metric tonnes, according to Reuters calculations based on data from industry sources, amid stoppage extensions.

Higher OPEC+ oil production quotas may have a limited effect on Moscow’s export plans in May, as Russia’s compensation plan would to a large extent offset a planned increase.

Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May.

Russia’s oil output quota for May rose to 9.083 million bpd, while its updated plan provided by OPEC requires it to compensate for 85,000 bpd of oil overproduction next month.
Russia’s crude oil output edged down to 8.963 million barrels per day in March from 8.973 million bpd in February, according to OPEC.
Source: Reuters