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It was high volatility Friday on Crude with heavy losses at mid session for Oil to recover by the US close. The trigger was a weak US March Retail Sales at -0.4% vs previous figure of +1.0% and a much lower April consumer confidence. The May WTI futures closed at $91.29/bbl, -$2.22 and Brent contract- which is expiring today- closed at $103.11/bbl, -$1.16. This morning, China Q1 GDP was reported only at +7.7%, down from last year Q1 figure of +7.9%. The Oil market lost $2 in the process. Troika officials arrived in Lisbon today as the government struggles to keep the $78bn rescue program on track and avoid another bailout. Today, it is very little to watch in term of data with only the Empire Manufacturing (New York State), hopefully a positive data, after a stream of weaker numbers from the US recently. This morning, crude is trading more than 2% down.
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The Northwest European bunker fuel oil prices fell sharply last Friday, posting up to $10/mt losses versus previous days close. Despite lower prices, demand in Rotterdam was weak with suppliers reporting tight product avails and 3-4 days waiting time. Antwerp was struggling with prompt lsfo avails, offered only from April 16 and onwards. The Singapore fuel oil markets lost more than $5.5 during the Platts window last Friday tracking crude values. The fuel oil values continued to lag behind the fall which narrowed the Asian fuel oil crack. The delivered bunker premiums were between $8.0- 7.5 above cargo prices last Friday despite the softer crude values after the window. This morning both markets are trading slightly down.
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Settlement & Indications (mid values) |
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Product |
Yesterday's Values |
Forward Indications |
Product |
Change |
Last |
Dir. |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Q313 |
Q413 |
2014 |
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) |
(2,22) |
91,29 |
↓ |
89,40 |
89,60 |
89,63 |
89,59 |
89,02 |
88,84 |
ICE Brent Swap (1st month) |
(1,16) |
103,11 |
↓ |
101,14 |
101,01 |
100,80 |
100,47 |
99,54 |
97,32 |
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) |
(29,00) |
856,00 |
↓ |
856,67 |
859,92 |
862,83 |
864,97 |
867,61 |
861,31 |
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm |
(16,00) |
578,00 |
↓ |
575,50 |
573,75 |
572,25 |
570,75 |
566,75 |
560,50 |
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med |
(14,50) |
567,00 |
↓ |
569,50 |
568,75 |
567,25 |
567,50 |
561,00 |
556,50 |
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE |
(14,75) |
586,50 |
↓ |
591,25 |
595,00 |
598,00 |
597,75 |
593,75 |
587,25 |
3% no. 6 USGC WB |
(1,16) |
91,40 |
↓ |
90,50 |
90,25 |
90,00 |
90,00 |
89,00 |
88,00 |
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore |
(6,50) |
614,50 |
↓ |
599,50 |
597,50 |
596,25 |
595,00 |
591,00 |
586,50 |
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm |
(25,00) |
854,25 |
↓ |
857,25 |
861,25 |
864,25 |
865,25 |
867,25 |
863,25 |
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST |
(10,00) |
585,00 |
↓ |
582,75 |
581,00 |
579,50 |
578,00 |
573,00 |
567,75 |
Physical Singapore 380 CST |
(6,00) |
622,75 |
↓ |
606,75 |
604,75 |
603,50 |
602,25 |
598,25 |
593,75 |
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Focus of the day: Gibraltar |
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The Gibraltar Strait is having a smooth start of the week with good weather conditions and most barges within schedule, except for two suppliers in Gibraltar who have a backlog of six vessels queuing to be supplied.
There are good product avails at the three ports and prompt deliveries can still be accommodated. Weather forecast is good for the week so no major delays are expected. CIF Med 3.5% is trading some 4 usd above FOB Barges Rotterdam and the HILO spread is narrowing in the Med to some 11 usd/mt, with the premium of CIF Med 1% over FOB NEW 1% is currently at 15 usd/mt. The Gibraltar Strait is seeing quite healthy demand this morning and the Med market is flat.
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Economy fundamentals this week |
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Fundamental Indicators |
Statistic |
Importance |
Date |
Time |
Period |
Consensus |
Last |
Actual |
Empire Manufacturing |
Medium |
15-apr |
8:30 AM |
Apr |
5.0 |
9.2 |
- |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Medium |
15-apr |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
45 |
44 |
- |
Core CPI |
High |
16-apr |
8:30 AM |
Mar |
0.2% |
0.2% |
- |
Housing Starts |
Medium |
16-apr |
8:30 AM |
Mar |
935K |
917K |
- |
Building Permits |
Medium |
16-apr |
8:30 AM |
Mar |
955K |
946K |
- |
Industrial Production |
Medium |
16-apr |
9:15 AM |
Mar |
0.4% |
0.7% |
- |
Initial Claims |
Medium |
18-apr |
8:30 AM |
13-apr |
350K |
346K |
- |
Philadelphia Fed |
Medium |
18-apr |
10:00 AM |
Apr |
3.0 |
2.0 |
- |
Leading Indicators |
Medium |
18-apr |
10:00 AM |
Mar |
0.0% |
0.5% |
- |
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Source: OW Risk Management
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