OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 16.0 mb in March to stand at 2,745 mb, more than 161 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 98 mb above the five-year average. Crude indicated a surplus of around 99 mb, while product stocks were in line with the five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 61 days, some 2.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April shows that total commercial oil stocks rose further by 44.7 mb to stand at 1,250.1 mb. With this build, they were 167 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, commercial crude and products saw builds of 15.6 mb and 29.1 mb, respectively.

The latest information for China showed total commercial oil inventories rose by 7.9 mb in March to stand at 410.9 mb, about 7.0 mb above the same time a year ago. Within the components, commercial crude stocks fell by 5.6 mb, while product inventories rose by 13.5 mb.

OECD
The latest information for March shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 16.0 mb to stand at 2,745 mb, the highest level since October 2010. At this level, inventories were 161.2 mb higher than the same time a year ago and around 98.1 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, commercial crude rose by 22.7 mb, while product stocks were down by 6.7 mb.

OECD commercial crude continued its upward trend for the fourth consecutive month to end March at 1,382 mb, which is 86.7 mb above the same time one year earlier and 98.9 mb higher than the latest five-year average. Builds were again most evident in the US, reflecting a continued increase in US domestic production along with higher crude imports. The ongoing contango structure also helped crude to increase further.

In contrast, OECD product inventories fell by 6.7 mb in March, which was less than the sharp decline seen in February. At 1,366 mb, product inventories stood at 74.4 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, while they remained in line with the seasonal norm.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days in March from the previous month to stand at 61.0 days, which was 3.5 days above last year at the same period and 2.8 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas’ days of forward cover was 6.5 days higher than the historical average at 66.4 days in March, while OECD Asia Pacific stood at 2.0 days below the seasonal average to finish the month at 49.0 days. At the same time, OECD Europe indicated a slight deficit of 0.4 days, averaging 66.4 days in February.

In OECD Americas, commercial stocks rose by 18.5 mb to stand at 1,477 mb in March, a surplus of 156 mb above the seasonal norm and around 166 mb above the same time one year ago. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 23.4 mb, while product inventories abated this build, declining by 6.7 mb.

At the end of March, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose, ending the month at 793 mb, which is 130 mb above the latest five-year average and 120 mb higher than the same time one year ago. Ongoing increases in US domestic production along with the WTI contango structure have pushed crude oil inventories to another alltime record high. Higher crude oil imports, reaching 7.3 mb/d in March, also contributed to the build. However, an increase in crude oil refinery input limited further builds in US commercial crude oil stocks.

In contrast, product stocks in OECD Americas fell in March to stand at 684 mb. Despite this stock draw, they indicated a surplus of 46.0 mb above the same time one year ago and 25.3 mb over the seasonal norm. The fall in product stocks came mainly from the improvement in US demand.

OECD Europe’s commercial stocks fell by 3.3 mb in March to stand at 898 mb, which is 23.4 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 35.7 mb below the latest five-year average. Product stocks went up by 1.1 mb, while commercial crude inventories saw a stock draw of 4.4 mb.

OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks fell in March to stand at 374 mb, which is 10.4 mb below the same period a year earlier and 14.7 mb less than the latest five-year average. The fall in crude oil stocks was mainly driven by reduced crude exports to the region, as lower crude refinery runs limited further drops in crude oil inventories. In contrast, OECD Europe’s commercial product stocks rose by 1.1 mb in March to stand at 524 mb, which is 33.9 mb higher than a year ago at the same time, yet 21.1 mb below the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific commercial oil stocks rose slightly, by 0.8 mb, in March to end the month at 371 mb, which is 28.4 mb less than a year ago and 21.8 mb below the fiveyear average. Within the components, crude rose by 3.7 mb, while product inventories fell by 2.9 mb. Crude inventories ended March at 216 mb and stood at 22.9 mb below a year ago and 16.8 mb under the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacific’s total product inventories ended March at 155 mb, indicating a deficit of 5.5 mb below a year ago and 5.0 mb under the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for March shows that total European stocks fell by 3.2 mb, reversing the strong build of 17.4 mb in February to end the month at 1,077.7 mb, which is 11.8 mb or 1.1% above the same time a year ago, yet 24.0 mb or 2.2% below the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 4.4 mb, while product inventories rose by 1.1 mb.

European crude inventories fell in March, reversing the build of the previous month, to stand at 470.1 mb, which is 2.7 mb or 0.6% below the same period one year ago, yet 4.7 mb or 1.0% above the seasonal norm. The fall in crude oil stocks was driven by lower crude supply due to some disruptions in exports. Lower crude refinery runs limited further drops in crude oil inventories.

In contrast, European product stocks rose by 1.1 mb in March for the third consecutive month to stand at 607.7 mb, which is 14.5 mb or 2.4% above a year earlier at the same time, yet 28.7 mb or 4.5% below the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed, with naphtha and residual fuel stocks going up, while distillates and gasoline remained unchanged.

Distillate stocks stood at 339.0 mb, indicating a surplus of 7.2 mb or 1.9% above last
year at the same time and 0.5 mb or 0.1% higher than the latest five-year average.
Strong demand, mainly for heating oil in Germany, was offset by lower distillate output.
Gasoline stocks also remained unchanged in March, ending the month at 116.3 mb,
which is a surplus of 2.4 mb or 2.1% over a year earlier and 1.4 mb or 1.2% above the
seasonal norm. Gasoline production fell by around 160,000 b/d in March, offsetting the
increase in demand, leaving gasoline stocks unchanged in March.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 0.3 mb in March, reversing the stock draw of the previous month. At 72.9 mb, residual fuel oil stocks were 3.9 mb or 5.6% above the same time a year ago and 19.3 mb or 20.9% less than the seasonal average.

Naphtha stocks rose by 0.9 mb in March to stand at 25.5 mb, indicating a surplus of 1.1 mb or 4.3% above the same month last year, but they remained 11.3 mb or 30.8% lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for April shows that total commercial oil stocks rose for the sixth consecutive month, increasing by 44.7 mb, to stand at 1,250.1 mb. With this build, they
were 163.2 mb or 15% above the same period a year ago and 167.2 mb or 15.4% higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, commercial crude andproducts saw builds of 15.6 mb and 29.1 mb, respectively.

US commercial crude stocks have risen sharply since October 2014, accumulating around 126 mb to stand at 487.0 mb at the end of April and finishing the month at 93.9 mb or 23.9% above the same time last year and 106.5 mb or 28.0% above the latest five-year average. The increase in US domestic production, along with the WTI contango structure, pushed crude oil inventories higher. However, the last week of April saw a stock draw of 3.9 mb for the first time since the first week of January. This fall was mainly driven by a large weekly drop in crude imports, which declined by 0.9 mb/d week-on-week to average 6.5 mb/d. A higher increase in crude oil refinery input also contributed to this build. Indeed, refinery runs rose by 0.25 mb/d to average 16.3 mb/d, the highest rate of the year. Refineries were running at around 90.0% of operable capacity in April, 1.7 pp higher than the previous month and 2.8% above last year at the same time. Crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, saw a slight build of 1.7 mb in April versus March to end the month at 61.7 mb, with the last week of April showing a marginal stock draw of 12 tb. While the latest draw in US crude commercial stocks was seen as a positive sign for crude oil prices, the overhang remains very high, calling into question the recent WTI price performance.

Total product stocks rose by 29.1 mb in April to end the month at 763.1 mb, which is around 69.3 mb or 10.0% above the level seen at the same time a year ago and a surplus of 60.7 mb or 8.6% above the seasonal norm. With the exception of gasoline, all other products saw builds.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.3 mb in April, ending the month at 227.9 mb, which is 11.9 mb or 5.5% higher than the same period a year ago and 13.5 mb or 6.3% above the latest five-year average. The drop came mainly from stronger apparent demand, which averaged more than 9.0 mb/d in April. Higher refinery output limited further drops in gasoline inventories.

In contrast, distillate stocks rose by 3.6 mb in April, ending the month at 130.8 mb, which is a surplus of 13.9 mb or 11.9% above the same period a year ago and 1.2 mb or 0.9% over the five-year average. The build in middle distillate stocks reflected higher output.
Source: OPEC