A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Brent settled at a three-month low, pressured by emerging markets sell off, while WTI ended higher, boosted by continued demand for heating oil due to the spell cold in the US and expectations of a large draw from storage at the benchmark delivery point. EIA Weekly stock report will come out today and the market expects to see a crude build of 2.3mb, distillate draw of -1.58mb and gasoline build of 1.48mb. The rest of the week, the market will focus on US economic releases with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Crude Oil looks vulnerable if Libyan export post some additional positive news and we face more Emerging Market sell off although Asia stocks are trying a timid rebound today. This morning WTI is trading +1,04% while Brent is up around +0,5%.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets reported mixed demand and avails levels in different ports yesterday. Delivered 380cst product both in Antwerp and Rotterdam gained app. $2/mt. LSFO avails were tightening again in NWE, adding higher premiums for prompt deliveries. Asia’s fuel oil derivative market really took a bearish view going into the second half of February and the prompt intermonth spread for 180CF dropped from 9.00/mt to 5.50/mt, but was traded up during European hours to 7.00/mt. Front month Visco followed the trend down and traded from 7.00/mt to 5.25/mt. Dubai/180CF cracks where as well seen weaker and overall this could be seen as a backlash after the bull run that started in early December and the tight supply situation could probably ease soon. On the physical side Ex-wharf 380cst moved lower USD 6.00/mt to close at 615.00/mt, and delivered 380cst was seen from 608.00/mt to 618.00/mt depending on volume and vessel. Overall market is still impacted by the Chinese New Year, why we could see a firmer note next weak from increased bunker demand, due to usual CNY leave ending in China. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Mar Apr May Q214 Q314 Q414 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,76 97,19 ↑ 97,06 96,18 95,27 95,23 92,46 90,37 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0,26) 105,78 ↑ 105,53 105,12 105,12 104,71 103,42 102,07 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 3,25 906,25 ↓ 900,00 896,25 893,00 892,92 886,89 881,94 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 1,75 564,00 ↑ 568,50 568,25 568,00 568,00 566,00 562,00 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 0,25 568,50 ↑ 566,75 566,00 565,75 565,75 563,50 559,25 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 5,75 595,75 ↑ 594,50 593,25 592,25 592,50 589,75 582,50 3% no. 6 USGC WB 0,03 88,30 ↑ 88,30 88,70 88,88 88,55 88,19 88,16 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (3,75) 605,00 ↑ 594,50 591,25 590,50 590,50 587,75 585,25 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 3,50 904,25 ↓ 901,25 897,25 894,25 894,25 887,25 883,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 1,00 566,75 ↑ 573,75 573,50 573,25 573,25 571,25 567,25 Physical Singapore 380 CST (1,50) 617,75 ↑ 599,75 596,50 595,75 595,75 593,00 590,50

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual ISM Index High 3-Feb 10:00 AM Jan 57.0 56.5 51.3 Factory Orders Medium 4-Feb 10:00 AM Dec -2.0% 1.8% -1.5% ADP Employment Change Medium 5-Feb 8:15 AM Jan 175K 238K - ISM Services Medium 28-Jan 10:00 AM Jan 53.5 53.8 - Initial Claims Medium 6-Feb 8:30 AM 01-feb 330K 348K - Trade Balance Medium 6-Feb 8:30 AM Dec -$37.0B -$34.3B - Nonfarm Payrolls High 7-Feb 8:30 AM Jan 150K 74K - Unemployment Rate High 7-Feb 8:30 AM Jan 6.5% 6.7% -

Source: OW Risk Management