LNG shipping stocks strengthened last week, with the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) climbing 1.55% to 170.72 points, breaking above months of resistance. Trading volumes were notably higher, and gains were broadly shared across the sector, underscoring the industry's maturity and resilience within the global energy mix. New Fortress Energy led the rally with a 14.5% surge, followed by Golar LNG at 11%, both rebounding strongly from their respective support levels. Norwegian names Cool Company and Flex LNG also advanced sharply, while Tsakos Energy Navigation closed above resistance with solid momentum. Among majors, BP, Chevron, and ‘K' Line broke through technical resistance, with Shell and NYK Line approaching similar thresholds. On the downside, Exmar and Awilco LNG both recorded double-digit losses, and Nakilat and Adnoc corrected slightly but remained in broader uptrends. Overall, the breakout above 170 points signals renewed investor confidence, although rising geopolitical risks indicate likely volatility ahead.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, gained 2.61 points (1.55%), closing at 170.72 points, while the S&P 500 index gained 0.27%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Week 34-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)
Broader view
The past week was very positive for three reasons: 1) The UPI closed above 170 points, 2) Trading volume was significantly above average, and 3) A large number of companies participated in the growth.
What was behind the UPI breaking through several months of resistance this week? Once again, it was a combination of several factors. Perhaps surprisingly for some, we will not mention seasonality first, but rather the maturity of the entire LNG sector. As we have mentioned several times, this whole sector has matured and is indispensable to the global energy mix. We can say that it is robust. Seasonality, which we also mentioned, is the second factor related to this. Combined with the continuously published quarterly results, which provided insight into the overestimated effects of low spot rates and uncertainty in other sectors (such as AI), this contributed to the return of investors.
The critical question is whether this marks the beginning of a long-term strengthening trend. The honest answer is that we don't know for certain, although we believe it is likely. We have already outlined the reasons for potential growth. Additionally, we identify the primary risks associated with non-market geopolitical forces. Increasing the threshold for accepting the use of force to resolve conflicts can quickly change current perceptions. Wars are becoming somewhat more acceptable. In this context, it is helpful to analyse the long-term shipping routes of each fleet.
Constituents
But let’s set aside the gloom. How did individual companies and partnerships in the UP index perform? The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 13:7. One company ended the week with zero movement.
New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE) grew the most, by 14.5%, returning to double-digit movements. This followed a previous decline over several weeks back to support.
Golar LNG (NYQ: GLNG) grew by 11%. Although it had been experiencing fluctuations in support for several weeks, we did not expect such rapid growth to occur. Especially since the price was firmly rejected at higher levels each time. Nevertheless, with slightly above-average volume, the price closed above the previous high from the end of last year and reached a level last seen in 2015.
Two Norwegian companies also performed well. Cool Company (NYSE/OSE: CLCO) and Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG) surged with new strength. CLCO added 8.1% and FLNG 6.9%. From a technical analysis perspective, FLNG is in a better position as it closed above a vital threshold and ended its downtrend, which had lasted since October 2023. Trading volume is above average. The company has a dividend record date on 5 September, so we expect a correction before growth continues. Last week, the company announced its quarterly results, including refinancing and share buybacks. It also continues to strengthen its cash position, and management addressed the question of how it will utilise the funds. CLCO also continues to grow, but is technically in a slightly worse position.
Cosco Shipping Energy (SS:600026) also hovered around support for many weeks, but has now added 7%. However, this is a halt to the decline and a possible change in trend.
Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) is in a similar situation to CLCO. Last week, it added 4.7% and closed above its previous resistance. Volume was above average.
Excelerate Energy (NYQ: EE) and Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) are hovering around support. While EE averted a deep decline the week before last and grew by 2.4% last week, DLNG is slowly attempting to reach higher levels after months at support. However, these are tiny steps, and they are still in the support area. Last week, shares rose by 3.4%.
From a technical point of view, BP (NYSE: BP), Chevron (NYQ: CVX) and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) are worth mentioning, as well as two Japanese companies, ‘K'Line (TSE: 9107) and NYK Line (TSE: 9101). All are trying to grow. BP, CVX and ‘K' Line have probably already broken through technical resistance levels, while SHEL is very close to doing so, as is NYK Line. We can also add Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880), which may have completed its growth correction.
Two companies suffered double-digit losses: Exmar (BSE: EXM) and Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG). ALNG reported results that were not surprising in terms of TCE achieved. The 10.2% decline was likely caused by a further decline in the utilisation of both ships, one of which operates in the competitive spot market.
Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) also fell by 1%, but averted an attempt to break through support and continues to move sideways.
Adnoc (ADX: ADNOCLS) also corrected its previous growth by 0.75%, with the growth trend continuing.
Crystal Ball
Our outlook remains optimistic. The sector has matured, has become indispensable to the global energy mix, and is robust. Additionally, we have noted the influence of seasonality, which is another essential factor to consider.
We identify the primary risks associated with non-market geopolitical forces. Increasing the threshold for accepting the use of force to resolve conflicts can quickly change current perceptions. Wars are becoming somewhat more acceptable. In this context, it is helpful to analyse the long-term shipping routes of each fleet.
Source: By Tomas Novotny, UP-Indices