Platts Analysis of U.S. EIA Data
Saturday, 21 February 2015 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose 7.7 million barrels the week ended February 13, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Thursday showed.The weekly build was more than double the amount expected by analysts surveyed by Platts. At 425.6 million barrels, the U.S. crude oil inventory pushed further into record-high territory.
However, the increase was nearly half the level reported Wednesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API). API data showed U.S. stocks soaring a massive 14.3 million barrels. If EIA data had confirmed the API's report, it would have been a new record for the largest weekly build, currently standing at 12.5 million barrels, a mark set in 1985.
Rising crude oil production and falling crude oil runs helped push stocks higher the week ended February 13. The EIA estimated crude oil production at 9.28 million barrels per day (b/d), up 54,000 b/d. Production also was 1.13 million b/d greater than the year-ago level.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract -- grew 3.7 million barrels to 46.3 million barrels.
The Cushing hub continues to see its tanks fill. Stocks have risen from 19 million barrels in October 2014.
The buildup has been widely attributed to traders buying and storing crude oil to try and profit from NYMEX futures being sold at a premium for later-dated delivery.
Cushing inventory is now approaching its own record-high of 51.9 million barrels set in January 2013.
Crude oil stocks rose more than 3 million barrels on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), Midwest (USMW) and Gulf Coast (USGC). The Rocky Mountain area was almost unchanged, while the U.S. West Coast drew 1.4 million barrels lower.
Refineries processed less crude oil the week ended February 13, helping crude oil stocks accumulate.
Crude oil runs were down 122,000 b/d to 15.4 million b/d, lowering the refinery utilization rate 1.3 percentage points. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.67 percentage point.
At 88.7% of operable capacity, refinery utilization remains 1.9 percentage points above the year-ago level. But that year-over-year increase has come down compared with the previous two weeks.
Crude oil imports fell 181,000 b/d to 7.1 million b/d, helping mitigate the weekly build.
Imports from Iraq were down 298,000 b/d to 186,000 b/d. Imports from Canada came off their record high set a week earlier, down 265,000 b/d to 3 million b/d. Imports from Saudi Arabia were up 75,000 b/d to 907,000 b/d.
DISTILLATE STOCKS PLUNGE
U.S. distillate stocks drew 3.8 million barrels lower the week ended February 13, EIA data showed, outpacing analysts' expectations of a 2.2 million-barrel decline.
At 127.4 million barrels, distillate stocks were 8.3% below the EIA five-year average for the same reporting period.
Cold weather across large portions of the U.S. has increased demand for distillate products, analysts say.
Prompt prices for ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures settled February 13 at a premium of 5-cents per gallon over April delivery. The degree of backwardation* in the prompt/second-month spread has widened since, closing at about 7 cents Wednesday.
By region, the USGC's combined stocks of low- and ULSD dropped 430,000 barrels the week ended February 13 to 37.2 million barrels, a 2.8% deficit to the EIA five-year average.
On the USAC, combined stocks decreased 1.2 million barrels to 29.2 million barrels, 18.1% above the 2010-14 average.
USMW combined stocks decreased 244,000 barrels to 31.1 million barrels, 1.9% above the five-year average.
U.S. gasoline stocks increased 485,000 barrels, in line with analysts' expectations of a 443,000-barrel rise.
On the USAC -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX futures contract -- gasoline stocks increased 1 million barrels to 70.4 million barrels, 12.4% above the five-year average.
USMW stocks were up 1.2 million barrels to 54.3 million barrels, 1.7% below the average for 2010-14. USGC stocks fell 1.3 million barrels to 78.2 million barrels, 2.6% above the five-year average.
* Backwardation is the industry vernacular for the condition whereby prices for nearby delivery are higher than prices for future-month delivery.
Source: http://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2015/021915b/no