Dutch and British wholesale gas prices hit a one-year intraday high on Thursday amid a cold weather forecast and concerns over Russian supply and storage inventories being lower than last year’s level.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was up 0.86 euros at 47.67 euros per megawatt hour by 1012 GMT, a fresh intraday high, LSEG data showed.
The British front-month contract TRGBNBPMc1 was up 3.45 pence at 120.6 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 rose 2.15 pence to 119.25 p/therm, both the highest intraday level since Nov. 2023
“Concerns about EU stock gas… and Russian supply continue to fuel the uptrend,” analysts at Engie’s EnergyScan said in a morning note, adding that European gas stocks were 89.87% full compared to 98.87% last year.
Prices remain lower than the record intraday high of 306 euros/MWh they hit in August 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, rising energy bills for families and small businesses are a major concern for EU governments who were under pressure to curb higher energy costs in 2021 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Demand for heating across Northwest Europe is expected to rise by 279 gigawatt hours per day on the day ahead to 4,950 GWh/d on falling temperatures, LSEG data shows.
“Winter risk remains, and the longer-term trend is bullish. We expect another day of sideways-bullish trading,” said LSEG analyst Saku Jussila
Russia’s natural gas exports through Ukraine to Europe have been stable on Thursday, Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom GAZP.MM said, despite a contractual row with Austrian energy company OMV OMVV.VI.
Gazprom said it would send 42.4 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same volume it has shipped each day since Nov. 12.
U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% on Wednesday to a 10-month high on forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage to meet rising heating demand around the U.S. Thanksgiving day holiday next week. They rose another 5% in early trade on Thursday morning.
The gains in Europe helped drag Asian LNG prices higher despite weak demand. The Asian benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) is currently trading at $14.6/mmBtu.
In the European carbon market, CFI2Zc1, the benchmark contract edged up 0.82 euros to 69.23 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Marwa Rashad; Editing by Jan Harvey)