A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns
and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management
and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world,
including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.
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Crude oil started the week with more than $1.0 on close yesterday. The August WTI contract added $1.33 to settled at $88.43/bbl yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The August Brent future expired yesterday closing at $103.55/bbl, up +$1.15 while the September Brent was similarly up and closed $103.37/bbl. Interestingly enough , crude prices are trending higher despite recent worsening economic data like a weaker Chinese 2nd quarter GDP data and also softer US June Retail sales figures; a straight three month drop yesterday. The IMF revised downward global economic growth to 3.9% impacted mainly by Eurozone difficulties. The bearish economic data have not dampened market sentiment but instead have raised investors optimism that the various governments will be forced towards more quantitative easing policies to boost economic growth. Recently, the People's Bank of China has announced a surprise second interest rate cut in a month. Markets are building their hopes on such moves and are looking forward to the US Federal Reserve Chairman testimony in front of the congress later today and tomorrow for any hints of easing. Also some support for Crude price yesterday after Iran’s decision to increase their military presence in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against the embargo from the West. This morning, crude is trading slightly higher.
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Cargo prices had been stronger than GO gained more than $12/mt in the NWE yesterday. 380cst bunker fuel product prices posted a smaller gain closing up by approx. $8/mt. As a result the spread between them narrowed to less than $6/mt against an average of $8.5/mt. Cargo prices were supported by attempts to fix some arbitrage cargo to Asia while demand for the bunker grade remained relatively weak. The Singapore fuel oil market prices were up by $0.5 - 2.00/mt during the Platts window yesterday. The Asian Fuel Oil crack remains weak as the market is affected by a thin demand. The delivered bunker premium was around $8.0/mt above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps finished the day higher by approx. $9.25/mt both for Rotterdam Barges and Singapore 180 cst Cargo FOB papers lifting higher without changes of its structure. Both markets are trading slightly down this morning.
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Settlement & Indications (mid values)
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Product
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Yesterday's Values
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Forward Indications
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Product
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Change
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Last
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Dir.
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Aug
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Sep
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Oct
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Q412
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Q113
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2013
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NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)
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1.33
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88.43
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↑
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89.05
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89.41
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89.83
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90.19
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91.17
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90.19
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ICE Brent Swap (1st month)
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1.15
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103.37
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↑
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103.42
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103.03
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102.79
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102.51
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101.86
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102.51
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ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)
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9.75
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889.50
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↑
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893.83
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892.58
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891.00
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889.28
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851.50
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878.18
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3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm
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12.25
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590.00
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↑
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588.50
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586.00
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583.50
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581.75
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577.50
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572.00
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3.5% Cargoes FOB Med
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7.50
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587.50
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↑
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585.25
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582.25
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579.50
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577.75
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573.25
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567.75
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1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE
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10.50
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633.75
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↑
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629.00
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624.50
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619.50
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616.25
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609.50
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604.25
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3% no. 6 USGC WB
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1.70
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92.55
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↑
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90.65
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90.25
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89.95
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89.30
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88.75
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88.51
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380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore
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1.75
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603.50
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↑
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612.25
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610.00
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608.25
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606.00
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601.00
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594.75
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0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm
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9.50
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887.25
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↑
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895.25
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894.25
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893.25
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891.25
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883.25
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880.25
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Physical Rotterdam 380 CST
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8.00
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595.75
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↑
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598.75
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596.25
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593.75
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592.00
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587.75
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582.25
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Physical Singapore 380 CST
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2.00
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611.25
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↑
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622.50
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620.25
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618.50
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616.75
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611.75
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605.50
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Economy fundamentals this week
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Fundamental Indicators
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Statistic
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Importance
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Date
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Time
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Period
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Consensus
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Last
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Actual
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Retail Sales
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High
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16-Jul
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8:30 AM
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June
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0.2%
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-0.2%
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-0.5%
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Business Inventories
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Medium
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16-Jul
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10:00 AM
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May
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0.2%
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0.2%
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-0.4%
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CPI
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High
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17-Jul
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8:30 AM
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June
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0.1%
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-0.3%
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-
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Industrial Production
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High
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17-Jul
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9:15 AM
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June
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0.3%
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-0.1%
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-
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Housing Strats
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High
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18-Jul
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8:30 AM
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June
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743K
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708K
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-
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Initial Claims
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Medium
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19-Jul
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8:30 AM
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14-Jul
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365K
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350K
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-
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Existing Home Sales
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Medium
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19-Jul
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10:00 AM
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June
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4.65M
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4.55M
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-
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Leading Indicators
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Low
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19-Jul
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10:00 AM
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June
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-0.2%
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0.3%
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-
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Daily Charts
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Resistance
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Brent
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WTI
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GO
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Near
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104.25
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88.50
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895.75
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Next
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105.50
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Source: OW Risk Management