China port cargo throughput growth decelerated further to 3% yoy in 1Q25 from 4% yoy in 4Q24. The slowdown was due mainly to reduced throughput from bulk commodities, but offset partially by front-loading exports via container shipments, says Fitch Ratings. Container growth rose to 8% yoy from 5% yoy in 4Q24, due partially to businesses expediting shipments in anticipation of US tariff hikes in April 2025.

China’s export value rose further by 5.7% yoy versus 10% yoy in 4Q24, given the ongoing front-loading effect. Exports to the US grew 5% yoy but dropped sharply, by 21% yoy, in April as US tariff hikes became effective on 9 April. Conversely, the ASEAN market remained resilient, with exports rising by 7.8% yoy and further by 20.8% yoy in April. Exports to the EU also rose, by 4.1% and 8.3% yoy in 1Q25 and April, respectively.

China’s exports and imports from the US were notably affected by tariff hikes in April, dropping 21% and 14% yoy, respectively. However, increased exports to ASEAN largely compensated for the lost volume, indicating a rise in rerouting.

We believe the recent easing of US-China trade tensions, marked by their joint announcement on 12 May 2025 to reduce tariff rates, has the potential to help recover losses. However, uncertainty remains regarding the outcome of negotiations beyond the 90-day tariff suspension, with risks to port volume still skewed to the downside.
Source: Fitch Ratings