U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have risen 3.1 million barrels during the reporting week ended April 18, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The predicted increase is consistent with week-over-week changes shown in the EIA five-year average the week ended April 18 and will likely be supported by what analysts believe will be flat refinery utilization rates.

The EIA five-year average shows crude oil runs often pick up this time of year as refineries exit seasonal maintenance. And although U.S. Midwest runs have risen above 90% over the latest reporting week, U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refinery runs are at 89.9% of capacity, well below the pre-winter maintenance levels of nearly 96%.

The USGC is home to just under 46% of the U.S.' 17.93 million barrels per day (b/d) in operable refinery capacity.

With USGC crude oil stocks sitting at a record high 207.2 million barrels, flat refinery runs in the region would only add to the backlog of crude oil waiting to be processed, according to Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry.

And although there is typically a seasonal increase in crude oil imports as refinery rates rise, not all analysts believe that will be supported by the EIA numbers.

"We think that we'll be backing out more imports this week and move closer to the 7 million b/d mark," Larry said.

Citi Futures Perspectives energy analyst Tim Evans agreed and predicted that imports the week ended April 18 fell to 7.5 million b/d, a drop of nearly 800,000 b/d.

Despite the growing glut, imports from Saudi Arabia -- nearly all of which come on a term basis -- are unlikely to get backed out. Imports of Saudi crude oil hit 1.95 million b/d the week ended April 11, the highest since October.

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 1.7 million barrels the week ended April 18 on strong seasonal demand, which could pull imports from Europe, according to Larry.

The drop is in line with the EIA five-year average.

On a four-week moving average, U.S. implied demand* for gasoline is around 8.83 million b/d, the highest since the week ended January 3.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have fallen by about 900,000 barrels, in line with the five-year average of EIA data, as demand continues to eat away at inventories.

Implied demand for U.S. distillates is strong, sitting at 4.17 million b/d for the week ended April 11, EIA data shows. This is well above its four-week moving average of 3.84 million b/d.

* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts