China’s port cargo throughput rose by 5% yoy in 2Q25, accelerating from 3% in 1Q25, driven by stronger demand from the EU and emerging markets (EMs), which supported higher volumes at both coastal and river ports, says Fitch Ratings. However, the risk of trade volatility remains due to uncertainty over US tariffs.

Export value growth remained resilient at 6.0% yoy in 2Q25, compared with 5.7% in 1Q25. Increased shipments to the EU and EMs – including ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America – helped offset a sharp 23.9% yoy decline in exports to the US following the implementation of tariff hikes in April.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and China Containerized Freight Index declined by 7% and 14% qoq, respectively, in 2Q25. The drops were largely due to an oversupply of shipping capacity, which was intensified by the ongoing trade friction.

Negotiations between China and the US have yet to deliver a long-term tariff agreement, though the current truce has been extended by 90 days beyond the original mid-August expiration. Further extensions could support trade volumes, but the risk of renewed tariffs remains high. We expect volatility to persist in the coming quarters, keeping downside risks to China-US trade volumes elevated
Source: Fitch Ratings