U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have decreased 800,000 barrels in the week that ended Friday, a survey of analysts showed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.

The EIA five-year (2010-14) average shows inventories fell 292,000 barrels for the same reporting period.

One factor that could help draw stocks lower was last week's restart of BP's 250,000-barrels-per-day (b/d) crude distillation unit (CDU) at its Whiting, Indiana, refinery. The CDU had been closed for unscheduled repairs since August 8.

Despite the unit's return, the total refinery utilization rate is expected to have fallen 0.75 percentage points to 93.75% of operable capacity.

If confirmed, that would still represent a higher level of activity compared with a year ago, when the refinery utilization rate for the same reporting period equaled 93.3%, but it would also mark the second consecutive week that the utilization rate declined, suggesting the fall turnaround season may have started early.

The economics for turning crude oil into refined products has worsened, a factor that may also be encouraging a slowdown.

For the week that ended August 21, implied* gasoline demand dropped 516,000 b/d to 9.189 million b/d, the lowest average since early June.

Cracking margins on the Gulf Coast using West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged $6.63 per barrel (/b) last week, compared with $11.16/b in the week that ended August 21.

The front-month reformulated blend stock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures crack, basis Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent, was as low as $7.85/b Friday, extending a slide after touching a high of almost $25/b August 12.


GASOLINE STOCKS SEEN DOWN

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 2 million barrels last week, the analysts surveyed said.

The EIA five-year average shows gasoline inventories decreased 1.9 million barrels in the comparable reporting week.

Phillips 66 shut the gasoline-making fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit last Friday at its 238,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, because of a leak, according to sources.

The FCC unit was restarted Monday, trade sources said, which could affect next week's inventory statistics. A company spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

Gasoline stocks on the Atlantic Coast totaled 60.4 million barrels in the week ended August 21, a 6.7% surplus to the five-year average for the same reporting period.

On August 21, PBF shut the FCC unit at its Delaware City, Delaware, refinery after a fire, the company said. The unit has yet to restart.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have increased 700,000 barrels over the latest reporting week.

The EIA five-year average for the same reporting period shows inventories increasing 1.4 million barrels.

*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts