Upstream oil and gas got its mojo back in 2022. Record cash flows restored confidence and repaired balance sheets. For many, there is excitement about the year ahead. There are economic incentives of course, but a renewed sense of purpose to provide secure and affordable energy – particularly into tight European gas markets – will revitalise motivation.
But the good times have also exacerbated some of the challenges. In 2023 serious questions will be asked about the sector’s future. At all levels, the upstream industry needs to capture and broaden the energy narrative. Its social licence depends on it.
What are the key themes to look out for heading into 2023? What milestones must be reached on the path to Upstream 2.0? Drawing on powerful insight from Lens Upstream, our team of global experts have come together to share our annual round-up predictions for the industry in the year ahead – and the wildcards we’ll be watching out for.
Read Global upstream: 5 things to look for in 2023 for our take on:
- Windfalls and incentives
- A year of restrained investment growth
- Cost inflation and rising execution risks
- Decarbonisation at the core of Upstream 2.0
- Changing gas business models.
Plus, find out how global upstream trends might play out in your region with a selection of insights from some of our expert regional teams:
Asia Pacific
In Asia Pacific, all eyes will be on the policymakers in 2023, with regulatory developments featuring heavily across our five key themes for the year.
Canada
Unconventional output will grow, but rarely exceed single digits. Operators will outpace federal methane policies and will Oil Sands 2.0 become more than just lip service?
Caspian
Export routes for Kazakh oil and Azerbaijani gas will be scrutinised, major project start-ups will support near-term volume growth – and will Kazakhstan confront its looming gas shortfall?
Continental Europe
Continental Europe entered 2023 with concerns about energy security and affordability looming large. As geopolitical shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to reverberate, what are the key themes to watch?
Latin America
Latin America production grew in 2022, breaking a seven-year trend of annual declines. Will that growth continue in 2023? And will the pace of the energy transition pick up in the region?
Middle East and North Africa
Buoyed by high prices and swelling NOC coffers, MENA investment will ramp up in 2023. How will spending be skewed? Could offshore exploration alter the region’s gas dynamics?
North Sea
The UK could sanction the highest level of spend in 20 years but there is lots of uncertainty. Is it now or never for Cambo and Rosebank?
Sub-Saharan Africa
Giant discoveries make Namibia’s Orange Basin the world’s hottest new exploration basin – and Europe is eyeing up the region’s vast undeveloped gas resources to help solve its energy crisis. But there are challenges to tackle.
US Gulf of Mexico
Record cash flow of close to US$40 billion, an uptick in M&A activity and increased production and investment brought excitement to the region in 2022. What will 2023 bring?
US Lower 48
What will drive US E&P decisions in the year ahead? Despite a chaotic macro environment, ‘stability’ was the watchword in 2022. But could 2023 bring some inescapable change?
Source: Wood Mackenzie