The European benchmark contract fell to its lowest levels since September 2021 on Friday morning due to a comfortable supply outlook, while good storage levels and moderate weather limit demand.
The front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark for European gas trading, slipped by 1.60 euros to 50.00 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0858 GMT, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
The Dutch May contract also fell by 1.00 euro to 51.50 euros/MWh.
“Significant weight remains on TTF prices from high storage and quick LNG imports, particularly with Freeport restart,” analysts at Energy Aspects said in a weekly note.
The very high gas inventories should curb the volumes needed to refill storages in the April–October summer period by 26.3 billion cubic metres compared to the five-year average, they said.
Meanwhile, the restart after a fire of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export hub Freeport should add 7.7 million tonnes, or 10.5 bcm, to U.S. exports in 2023, assuming no further disruptions, they added.
European gas storage sites are currently around 65% full, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.
“I doubt the crisis is over – only this winter so it seems,” a trader said, adding prices were still trading three times higher than their average over the last 10 years.
Further in, the British within-day contract fell 3.50 pence to 125 pence per therm.
The British market was oversupplied by 11.2 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Friday morning, according to data from National Gas (formerly National Grid).
Both British and Dutch day-ahead prices should trade sideways next week, with demand largely unchanged amid windier, but slightly cooler weather, and steady LNG arrivals, Refinitiv analyst Marina Tsygankova said in a weekly report.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was up 0.61 euros to 98.15 euros a tonne.
The contract is showing strong momentum and could test the 100 euros/tonne level soon, although some market participants might take profit ahead of the weekend, Refinitiv analyst Luyue Tan said in a daily note.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Jason Neely)