China’s total cargo throughput rose by 10% yoy in 3Q23 thanks to a surge in major commodities import volume; the ramp-up of New Western Land-Sea Corridor (NWLC), leading to ports’ cargo throughput in Guangxi up by 29% yoy; and a low base in 2022 caused by weak demand from Europe and the US. Total container throughput rose by 6% yoy. Fitch Ratings attributes the growth to NWLC, driving up container throughput for ports in Guangxi province; accelerating trade with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); and Dalian Port adding five foreign trade routes in 2023.

China exports declined further amid weak demand, down 11% yoy. Exports to ASEAN and the EU fell further, down 17.0% and 17.5%, respectively, yoy, while exports to the US dropped slightly, down 14.3% from -16.7%. Weak demand from ASEAN, the EU and the US resulted in a further fall in overall exports, despite exports to Russia being 28.4% higher.

Fitch expects throughput to benefit from consumer spending recovery in the US and China. However, global manufacturing activities are still weak, especially in the Eurozone, as indicated by its weak manufacturing PMI. NWLC and RCEP could also contribute to overall throughput growth. On the other hand, the recovering manufacturing in China could support demand for commodities, which could underpin cargo throughput.
Source: Fitch Ratings