Spot charter rates for uncoated tankers were very disappointing in 1Q 2022, then fluctuated wildly in 2Q 2022, and are
again very strong in 3Q 2022.

In Jul 2022, the benchmark Baltic Exchange’s TD3C_TCE, TD6_TCE, and TD19_TCE indices averaged respectively
1,319 USD/day ; 56,525 USD/day ; 49,726 USD/day.
Indicative 1-year timecharter rates in Jul 2022 were being estimated at about 20,250 USD/day for a VLCC tanker ; 23,375 USD/day for a Suezmax ; and 23,100 USD/day for an uncoated Aframax. Benchmark newbuilding prices in Jul 2022 were being estimated at about USD 118.9 mln for a VLCC tanker ; about USD 80.0 mln for a Suezmax ; and about USD 63.6 mln for an uncoated Aframax. Indicative 5-year old secondhand prices in Jul 2022 were being estimated at about USD 79.0 mln for a VLCC tanker ; about USD 54.0 for a Suezmax ; and about USD 49.6 mln for an uncoated Aframax.

Deliveries of crude tankers over 60,000 DWT in 2022 are expected to increase to about 90 uncoated units, for a total of 19.08 mln DWT, based on the current orderbook, after accounting for slippage.
In Jan-Jul 2022, there were reported deliveries of at least 62 units, for a total of 13.32 mln DWT, up +12% on the same period in 2021 in DWT terms. This included 27 VLCC (8.23 mln DWT), 25 Suezmax (3.95 mln DWT), 10 Aframax (1.14 mln DWT), 0 Pmax (0.0 mln DWT).
Demolition activity in 2022 for crude oil tankers is expected to increase to about 48 units, for a total of 7.48 mln DWT, based on the fleet age profile and recent trends.
In Jan-Jul 2022, there were reported demolitions of at least 23 units, for a total of 3.33 mln DWT, +82% on the same
period in 2021 in DWT terms.
This included 3 VLCC (0.92 mln DWT), 7 Suezmax (1.10 mln DWT), 11 Aframax (1.17 mln DWT), 2 Pmax (0.14 mln DWT).

Net fleet growth for uncoated tankers over 60k DWT is expected to continue at around +3% y-o-y in 2022, and then slow to around +0% in 2023. The fleet expanded by +3% y-o-y in 2021.
The VLCC fleet is expected to expand by a net +3% y-o-y in 2022, and then +1% in 2023, after expanding by +4% in 2021.
The Suezmax fleet is expected to expand by +3% y-o-y in 2022, and then by -1% in 2023, after expanding by +3% in 2021.
The Aframax fleet is expected to expand by +1% y-o-y in 2022, and then by -0% in 2023, after expanding by +0% in 2021.
Crude oil seaborne trade volumes have rebounded in Jan-Jul 2022, with total loadings up +7.5% y-o-y based on Refinitiv vessel tracking data.
Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia increased by +19.4% y-o-y to 203.4 mln tonnes, from Russia increased by +15.8% y-o-y to 130.3 mln tonnes, from the USA +18.4% y-o-y to 90.6 mln t, but from West Africa down -3.2% y-o-y to 100.6 mln t.
*In this study we only consider uncoated ships larger than 60,000 DWT. The definition of coated/uncoated refers to how a ship was built, NOT how it’s currently trading.
Source: Banchero Costa