EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $112 per barrel in 2012 and rose to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, will average $108 per barrel in 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in February 2013, is forecast to average $14 per barrel in 2013 and $9 per barrel in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.
During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012. The July 2013 New York harbor reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) futures contract averaged $2.97 per gallon for the five trading days ending April 4, 2013. Based on the market value of futures and options contracts, there is a 12 percent probability that its price at expiration will exceed $3.35 per gallon, consistent with a monthly average regular-grade gasoline retail price exceeding $4.00 per gallon in July 2013.
Natural gas working inventories ended March 2013 at an estimated 1.69 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.79 Tcf below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.41 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-12). EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.52 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.60 per MMBtu in 2014.
With actual and forecast natural gas prices in the first 9 months of 2013 well above those during the comparable 2012 period, electricity generators using natural gas are expected to lose some of the market share gained from coal generation in 2012.
Source: EIA