Natural gas production in the lower 48 United States averaged 72.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August, which is nearly flat, compared to the July average, according to Bentek Energy®, an analytics and forecasting unit of Platts. On a month-over-month basis, August natural gas production was down less than 1% from July.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its domestic production estimates for July on or around September 30, 2015.

"U.S. rig activity, which surged forward in late July continued to strengthen in August, topping one thousand active rigs for the first time since April and averaging roughly 1,015 rigs," said Sami Yahya, Bentek energy analyst. "Most of the increase in active rig count came from the Permian, where the region added 21 rigs over the July number for a total of 276 rigs."

Yahya noted there is a close correlation between the number of active rigs and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices, where directionally the former typically follows the latter after a two or three month of lag. "The jump in Permian active rigs seen in August can likely be attributed to WTI prices topping the $60/bbl mark back in May and June," said Yahya, "And as internal rates of return (IRR) climb, producers typically drill more wells to take advantage of the uplift from better prices."

Bentek data analysis suggests 2015 U.S. natural gas production will average approximately 72.4 Bcf/d, with growth occurring throughout the year, driven almost exclusively by continued production gains in the Northeast.

The Bentek data analysis is based on an extensive sample of near real-time production receipt data from the U.S. lower 48 interstate pipeline system. Platts' Bentek production models are highly correlated with and provide an advance glimpse of federal government statistics from the U.S. EIA.

This Bentek Energy U.S. natural gas production data estimate will be published every month covering the previous month's output activity. Bentek's dry gas production estimates are not observed data and are based on pipeline receipt nominations and certain state production data.
Source: Bentek Energy, Platts