Platts : Analysis of U.S. EIA data: U.S. commercial crude oil stocks drop an unexpected 624,000 barrels
Friday, 17 May 2013 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell a surprising 624,000 barrels to 394.89 million barrels during the reporting week ended May 10 on a jump in refinery runs, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed Wednesday. Analysts surveyed Monday by Platts expected U.S. crude stocks to rise 300,000 barrels. The decline was more in line with the EIA five-year average, which shows U.S. crude stocks over this reporting week begin a long drawdown period into the summer.
The draw also brings U.S. crude stocks off of a record high of 395.514 million barrels for the reporting week ended May 3. However, crude stocks clearly remain amply supplied, sitting just over 9% above the EIA five-year average.
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma - delivery point for the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract - rose 575,000 barrels to 49.724 million barrels.
U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) crude stocks fell the most, down 974,000 barrels to 191.91 million barrels, despite imports jumping 117,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 3.796 million b/d.
USGC refinery runs jumped 327,000 b/d to 8.409 million b/d, boosting run rates 3.6 percentage points to 92.5% of capacity.
This is the highest USGC refinery utilization has been since early January, prior to spring maintenance throughout the region. USGC run rates averaged 80.3% of capacity during the reporting week ended March 8, EIA data shows.
Total U.S. refinery runs rose 170,000 b/d to 15.67 million b/d, driving run rates 1 percentage point higher to 88% of capacity, beyond expectations of a 0.4 percentage-point increase.
Utilization also increased in the Atlantic Coast, up 1.2 percentage points to 93.8% of capacity. This is up strongly from mid-February, when rates were as low as 72.3% of capacity.
These increases were offset by a sharp reduction in Midwest refinery runs, which fell 192,000 b/d to 3.003 million b/d, pushing rates 5.1 percentage points lower at 79.7% of capacity.
The drop could be related to the 306,000 b/d Phillips 66/Cenovus Wood River, Illinois, joint-venture refinery, which experienced "power issues" last week.
Total U.S. crude imports were nearly flat, up 17,000 b/d to 7.623 million b/d. Imports from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia jumped 393,000 b/d to 493,000 b/d and 105,000 b/d to 1.436 million b/d, respectively. However, imports from Iraq plummeted 480,000 b/d to 285,000 b/d.
Imports from Angola jumped 468,000 b/d to 654,000 b/d - the highest from that country since February 2011.
U.S. crude production declined slightly by 48,000 b/d to 7.321 million b/d.
U.S. PRODUCT STOCKS BUILD
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks rose an unexpected 2.588 million barrels to 217.662 million barrels during the week ended May 10. A Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts expected gasoline stocks to fall 800,000 barrels.
The build was mostly felt on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
Stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) - home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract - rose 1.805 million barrels to 63.348 million barrels, the highest since mid-February 2012.
Imports to the USAC fell 182,000 b/d to 538,000 b/d, while refinery and blender net production of finished motor gasoline fell 31,000 b/d to 2.983 million b/d.
The build, however, is likely a product of more gasoline and blending components coming up the Colonial Pipeline from the USGC.
"Inputs went up in PADD 3, so we have to assume more gasoline and blending components were made," said James Beck, lead analyst with the EIA's weekly petroleum supply team. "And gasoline stocks rose in PADD 3, but not as much as one would have expected."
USGC gasoline stocks rose 1.777 million barrels to 74.387 million barrels.
U.S. distillate stocks rose 2.3 million barrels to 119.864 million barrels during the week ended May 10, more than double analysts' expectations. This was led by a 3.355 million-barrel build in the USGC, which rose to 39.689 million barrels.
USGC ultra low sulfur diesel stocks rose 2.458 million barrels to 31.579 million barrels.
Source: Platts