Abstracting from political assessments of the events occurred in the
Crimea in early 2014, Informall BG have analyzed container cargo
traffic, processed by Ukrainian terminals, which was directed to
consignees or shipped by shippers based in the Crimea. Based on these
results, we tried to make an economic assessment of
this traffic and its
impact on overall container cargo traffic of Ukraine.
Having
analyzed the dynamics of imported containerized cargo traffic of 2013,
which was delivered to consignees in the Crimea through Ukrainian ports,
we have found out that during 2013 monthly volume delivered to the
peninsula was from 388 to 2410 TEU.
In
general we can see an undulating dynamics of imported containerized
cargo traffic of Crimean consignees, which can be explained by
seasonality. A strong increase of traffic in March is related to the
preparation for the holiday season in Crimea, as evidenced by the
structure of imported products – almost 40% of imports – food stuff and
24% of imports – equipment (including trading and refrigeration
equipment).
As for dynamics of the export containerized cargo traffic, generated by
shippers based in the Crimea, we can see that it is quite stable and
ranged from 201 to 507 TEU. Regarding the structure of the export
containerized cargo traffic – almost 77% of it was titanium dioxide,
shipped by PJSC “Crimea Titan”, and 9% of it was soda ash, shipped by
PJSC “Crimean Soda Plant”.
The total volume of Crimean import and
export reached 10405 TEU and 3430 TEU respectively. In 2013 the total
volume of laden import of Ukraine reached 377230 TEU and laden export –
257061 TEU. Thus, in case of final loss of the Crimea and its
containerized cargo traffic, the Ukraine may lose 2,76% of laden
imported containerized cargo traffic and 1,33% of laden exported
containerized cargo traffic or 2,18% of total laden containerized cargo
traffic.
In order to evaluate the short-received revenues of
Ukrainian container terminals in connection with the loss of the Crimea
and its containerized cargo traffic, considering the level of THC flat
rate and above mentioned cargo traffic, we can find out that Ukrainian
terminals will lose about $1,7 million (excluding VAT).
Source: Informall