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OPEC net oil export revenues

Tuesday, 29 July 2014 | 00:00
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that, excluding Iran, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned about $826 billion in net oil export revenues in 2013. This was a 7% decrease from 2012 earnings, but still the second-largest earnings totals during the 1975-2013 period for which EIA has tracked OPEC oil revenues. OPEC earnings declined largely for two reasons: a drop in OPEC oil production in 2013 (largely because of the supply disruption in Libya), and a 3% decline in average crude oil prices (as measured by the Brent crude oil price marker).

For each country, EIA derived net oil exports based on its oil production and consumption estimates from the latest edition of the STEO. For countries that export several different crude varieties, EIA assumes that the proportion of total net oil exports represented by each variety is equal to the proportion of the total domestic production represented by that variety.

For example, if Arab Medium represents 20% of total oil production in Saudi Arabia, it is assumed that Arab Medium also represents 20% of total net oil exports from Saudi Arabia. EIA assumes that these exports are then sold at prevailing spot prices. Projected revenues are then estimated using EIA's projections for oil prices from the STEO. These projections incorporate historical price differentials between spot prices for the different OPEC crude oil types and the benchmark crude oil prices that are projected in the STEO (Brent and West Texas Intermediate).

forecast billion dollars OPEC net oil export revenues* nominal real (2013$)198019902000201001000250500750Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, derived from data in the STEO

 

forecast dollars OPEC per capita net oil export revenues* nominal real (2013$)19801990200020100k1k2k3k4kSources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, derived from data in the STEO
Available OPEC (excluding Iran) net oil export revenues
  Nominal (billion $) Real (billion 2013$)
Country 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Jun 2014 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Jun 2014
Algeria $60 - - - - $28 $60 - - - - $28
Angola $27 - - - - $12 $27 - - - - $12
Ecuador $11 - - - - $5 $11 - - - - $5
Iran - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Iraq $86 - - - - $46 $86 - - - - $45
Kuwait $92 - - - - $45 $92 - - - - $45
Libya $34 - - - - $4 $34 - - - - $4
Nigeria $84 - - - - $40 $84 - - - - $40
Qatar $42 - - - - $21 $42 - - - - $20
Saudi Arabia $274 - - - - $130 $274 - - - - $127
UAE $53 - - - - $26 $53 - - - - $25
Venezuela $62 - - - - $30 $62 - - - - $29
All of OPEC $826 $774 $723 $387 $826 $760 $697 $380
View nominal or real data (2005-15)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, derived from data in the STEO.

OPEC (excluding Iran) per capita net oil export revenues
  Nominal ($) Real (2013$)
Country 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Jun 2014 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Jun 2014
Algeria $1,677 - - - - $785 $1,677 - - - - $770
Angola $1,964 - - - - $881 $1,964 - - - - $865
Ecuador $736 - - - - $365 $736 - - - - $358
Iran - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Iraq $2,706 - - - - $1,405 $2,706 - - - - $1,379
Kuwait $29,949 - - - - $14,368 $29,949 - - - - $14,103
Libya $4,999 - - - - $587 $4,999 - - - - $576
Nigeria $538 - - - - $254 $538 - - - - $250
Qatar $40,943 - - - - $19,815 $40,943 - - - - $19,449
Saudi Arabia $8,939 - - - - $4,184 $8,939 - - - - $4,107
UAE $9,736 - - - - $4,576 $9,736 - - - - $4,492
Venezuela $2,165 - - - - $1,038 $2,165 - - - - $1,019
All of OPEC $2,520 $2,316 $2,121 $1,164 $2,520 $2,273 $2,044 $1,143




Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $274 billion in 2013, representing approximately one-third of total OPEC oil revenues. On a per capita basis, OPEC (excluding Iran) net oil export earnings reached about $2,520 in 2013. These net export earnings do not include Iran's revenues, because of the difficulties associated with estimating Iran's earnings, including the country's inability to receive payments and possible price discounts Iran offers its existing customers.

Based on projections from EIA's July 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA estimates that OPEC (excluding Iran) could earn about $774 billion in net oil export revenues in 2014 and $723 billion in 2015 (unadjusted for inflation). These declines from the 2013 level are the result of projected declines in the call on OPEC crude oil production because of the large increases in non-OPEC production for 2014-15, as well as expected crude oil price declines that are also the result of declines in the call on OPEC crude oil production.
Source: EIA
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