British and near-term Dutch wholesale gas prices rose on Monday morning on lower wind output and the weather outlook while some longer-term contracts were down on healthy LNG supply.
The British contract for day-ahead delivery was up 6.00 pence at 205.00 pence per therm by 0954 GMT, and the February contract inched up by 0.50 pence to 212.00 pence/therm.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract gas contract, a European benchmark, was up 3.10 euros at 87.10 euros per megawatt hours (MWh), while the day-ahead price was up by 2.30 euros at 86.70 euros/MWh.
Pipeline supply of Norwegian gas to Britain and Europe was slightly down on Monday, while flows of Russian gas on the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline remained in reverse going eastward and supplies on another pipeline route via Ukraine also consistently low.
Analysts at Refinitiv said they expected prices to rise on a colder weather outlook and lower wind power generation, which should support gas-for-power demand.
Models show temperatures in Britain should drop below the seasonal norm again for Wednesday and in north-west Europe from Tuesday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
UK peak wind generation is expected at 9.8 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and 8.5 GW on Tuesday, out of total metered capacity of around 20 GW, Elexon data showed.
However, scheduled arrivals of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes increased over the weekend. LNG/TKUK
In the Dutch gas market, contracts further along the curve were down.
Net withdrawals of gas from European storage are currently at historically low levels, offering a slight improvement to low storage levels, analysts at Engie EnergyScan said in a morning note, but they still expected an uptick in prices.
“This upcoming rebound is backed by the higher levels of Asia Japan-Korea Marker (LNG) prices (despite lower withdrawals, gas stocks remain too weak to allow Europe to do without LNG),” they said.
In other markets, the European benchmark December 2022 emission allowance (EUA) contract CFI2Zc1 fell by 2.00 euro to 83.42 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)