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Prices rise as Russian flows ease, short-term weather

Wednesday, 02 February 2022 | 21:00

British and Dutch gas prices rose on Wednesday morning, after two days of losses, as Russian flows eased and on expectations of colder temperatures this week.

The British day-ahead gas price was up by 1.50 pence at 176.50 pence per therm by 0851 GMT. The Dutch equivalent day-ahead contract was 1.15 euros higher at 77.05 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).

The Dutch price for March was 0.85 euro higher at 76.50 euros/MWh.

Natural gas supplies from Poland to Germany via the Russian Yamal-Europe pipeline were suspended again on Wednesday morning after a brief resumption, data from the German network operator Gascade showed.

Westbound gas flows had been expected to resume after Russian gas giant Gazprom booked transit capacity of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline on Tuesday for eight hours, starting from 2100 GMT, the data at the booking platform showed.

Capacity nominations for supply to Slovakia from Ukraine via the Velke Kapusany border point, another major route for Russian gas deliveries to Europe, also eased after hitting their highest point in 2022 on Tuesday.

“A downward revision in temperature forecasts for the end of next week could also be supportive and halt the bearish move observed over the past two days,” said analysts at Engie EnergyScan.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures in Britain and north-west Europe are expected to fall towards normal levels this week before rising over the weekend, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Peak wind generation in Britain is forecast at 10.5 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday, rising to nearly 15 GW on Thursday, out of total metered capacity of around 20 GW, Elexon data showed, which could lower gas-for-power demand.

On the supply side, the UK gas system is over-supplied by 13 million cubic metres (mcm), National Grid data showed.

Storage in Britain is 71% full, while European storage sites are nearly 38% full, according to Gas Infrastucture Europe.

In January, Europe remained the top destination for shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to Refinitiv data, outpacing exports to Asia for the second month in a row.

The Dutch price for Q2 rose by 1.60 euros to 73.30 euros/MWh.

The European carbon market benchmark December 2022 contract was up 3.32 euros at 92.84 euros/tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nina Chestney)

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