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Platts: Analysis of US EIA data

Friday, 08 February 2013 | 00:00
U.S. commercial crude stocks rose 2.623 million barrels over the week ended February 1 as refinery utilization continued to dip across large swathes of the country, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Commercial crude stocks climbed to 371.685 million barrels over the week ended February 1, as a fall in refinery utilization and crude inputs exceeded a drop in import volumes.
The increase in stocks was less pronounced than in Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute (API) report, which showed a 3.625 million-barrel increase in commercial stocks, as well as analysts' expectations of a 3 million-barrel increase.
Stocks climbed by 3.4 million barrels in the refining-heavy U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) region, which saw a 0.7 percentage point decline in refining utilization and a 58,000 barrels per day (b/d) drop in crude oil inputs.
Inventories declined in the Midwest, falling by 600,000 barrels to 117.3 million barrels, with more than half of the drop due to a 315,000 barrel dip in stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma.
The 400,000 b/d Seaway Pipeline - which moves oil from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery point in Cushing to the refining complex along the USGC - has been running at a reduced capacity of 175,000 b/d to ease congestion along the line.
Nationally, U.S. refinery utilization declined by 0.8 percentage point over the course of the week ended February 1 to 84.2%, while crude oil inputs fell by 50,000 b/d. The decline in utilization was particularly pronounced in the West Coast, where utilization fell by 2.9 percentage points to 75.3% of capacity.
The drop in refinery utilization meshed with analysts' expectations of a 0.75 percentage point drop nationally, but contradicted data from the API, which showed a 0.2 percentage point increase in utilization to 85.2%.
Crude oil imports also fell, dropping 499,000 b/d to 7.569 million b/d, while domestic production continued to nudge upwards, increasing by 4,000 b/d to 6.997 million b/d.
Imports from Saudi Arabia fell to 709,000 b/d, their lowest level since the week ended September 24, 2010, EIA data shows.
Distillate stocks continued to decline over the week ended February 1, dropping 1.042 million barrels to 129.581 million barrels, despite a 209,000 b/d increase in distillate production.
The largest draw in inventories was on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), which saw distillate stocks fall by 1.2 million barrels to 40.1 million barrels as cold weather continued to hover over the Northeast United States.
Nationally, however, implied demand* for distillates slid by 97,000 b/d to 3.624 million b/d.
Tuesday's API data showed a 1.449 million-barrel draw in U.S. distillate stocks. Both data sets exceeded analysts' expectations of a 750,000 barrel drop.
Gasoline stocks increased by 1.738 million barrels to 234.039 million barrels, EIA data showed, as implied demand for the fuel fell by 86,000 b/d over the course of the week ended February 1.
Inventories along the USAC increased by 2.9 million barrels.
Additionally, gasoline imports into the country increased by 70,000 b/d, climbing to 693,000 b/d. More than 80% of the increase in imports was due to a 57,000 b/d jump along the East Coast, where imports climbed to 666,000 b/d. The East Coast is home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX RBOB contract.
API data showed a 1.556 million-barrel build in gasoline stocks, while analysts were anticipating a 1.75 million-barrel increase.
* Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
Source: Platts
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