Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were mixed but still trading within a narrow range on Monday morning amid stable supply and as warm weather softened demand but lower temperatures are set to return next week.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract (TRNLTTFMc1) rose by 0.50 euro to 32.45 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0930 GMT, while the day-ahead contract (TRNLTTFD1) was down 0.55 euro at 32.30 euros/MWh, according to LSEG data.
The British front-month contract was up 0.60 pence at 78.10 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract (TRGBNBPD1) was up 1.65 pence at 78.65 p/therm.
Temperatures across north-west Europe are forecast above-average until next week and then drop from May 5-9.
“The market is moderately bearish on the day-ahead mainly because of softer demand forecast across this and early next week,” said LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv.
Both gas demand for heating and for power generation are forecast to drop by a combined 300 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d) on the day-ahead, while supply is expected to remain stable.
U.S. President Donald Trump had a one-on-one meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Vatican on Saturday.
President Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine and suggested President Zelenskiy was ready to give up Crimea as the price of a peace deal with Russia.
However, the terms of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine – leaving the country and the EU with a potential dilemma of rejecting any terms which may include a withdrawal of support from the United States, consultancy Auxilione said in a daily note.
“Although we don’t expect any peace deal or a ceasefire to be reached soon, such sentiment may offer support in tandem with soft fundamentals for a bearish price trajectory,” LSEG’s Onyshkiv said.
Europe’s gas storage sites have started filling after the winter season, although at relatively low rates, with storage now at 38.41% full compared to over 61% last year, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down by 101 euro to 65.37 euros per metric ton.
Source: Reuters