British and Dutch gas prices traded mostly sideways on Thursday, finding some support from lower Russian pipeline flows, but mild weather and lower demand dampened the upside potential.

The British day-ahead gas price TRGBNBPD1 was down 0.50 pence at 183 pence per therm by 0924 GMT, while the within-day contract TRGBNBPWKD firmed 1 pence to 183 pence/therm

The Dutch day-ahead contract at the TTF hub TRNLTTFD1 was up by 0.45 euros at 76.10 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) and the benchmark TTF contract for March TRNLTTFMc1 eased by 0.15 euros to 75.50 euros/MWh.

Trading was range-bound with the market taking a breather until the next price shock, either to the up or downside, one analyst said.

“Fundamentals are very bearish, and geopolitical premium is fading,” he added.

Temperatures in Britain and Europe will briefly drop below normal over the next two days, but the week ahead will be very mild and windy, lowering gas demand, Refinitiv forecasts showed.

Gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which usually travel west from Russia to Europe, remain in steady reverse, while supplies through Ukraine into Europe via Velke Kapusanu dropped to their lowest level since Jan. 23.

The lower Velke Kapusany flows could provide some bullishness, although their recent volatility has been largely priced in by the market and today’s flows are unlikely to have a major effect on the day-ahead DA market, Refinitiv analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv said in a morning report.

There was no “game-changing news” on the geopolitical front regarding the Russian military build-up around Ukraine.

“Any escalation in eastern Europe or threat thereof remains an upside risk,” he said.

In other markets, the benchmark December 2022 carbon contract CFI2Zc1 was up 0.72 euros at 91.51 euros per tonne.

It fell sharply on Wednesday afternoon, after comments from a key European lawmaker suggesting changes to rules on how to address price spikes spooked the market.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by David Evans)