Seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia that starts in September will lead to a rise in the state’s oil exports this month, despite Russia’s pledge to cut loadings, Reuters calculations based on sources’ data show.

Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity is expected to rise in September by 44% from August to 4.635 million metric tons, industry sources said and Reuters calculations showed on Thursday, as some plants extend maintenance.

Oil exports from Russian western ports will rise 17% in September from August to some 2.1 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations based on the traders’ data.

A rise in offline refining capacity usually leads to an increase in available crude oil volumes and exports, which would not fit well with Russia’s plans to extend its voluntary oil export cuts until the end of the year to support oil market.

Average oil loadings from Russia’s western ports in May-June, named as baseline period for the cuts, were at around 2.4 million bpd, according to Reuters data, putting September in line with the promised decline.

Exports from Russia’s Baltic ports are expected at 6.4 million tons, and Black Sea Novorossiisk exports at 2.4 million tons, two traders said.

Russia’s western oil exports are most volatile and influenced by refinery runs.

However, Russia expects offline oil refining capacity to decline in October as oil plants wrap up seasonal maintenance, leaving less crude for exports.

Lower supply of Urals oil to a market lacking sour barrels may support prices for the Russian grade, one of the traders said.

Discounts for Russian Urals oil to the Brent benchmark narrowed for August-loading cargoes to a record low amid the fall in supply.

Indian refiners, the main buyers of the grade, complained about the narrower discount, saying they would cut purchases.

The projection of idle primary oil refining capacity for September has been revised up by 4.5% from the previous plan of 4.434 million tons owing to changes to refineries’ maintenance schedules.

In August, offline capacity reached 3.228 million tons, up 4.2% from the planned level.

For the January to August period, offline capacity reached 25.8 million tons, down more than 20% year-on-year, according to Reuters calculations.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Jason Neely, David Goodman and Jan Harvey)