At the end of the 28th week, the global bunker indices published by MABUX continued their moderate growth amid signs of relative market stabilization. The 380 HSFO index increased by USD 1.65, rising from USD 467.17/MT to USD 468.82/MT, although it still remains significantly below the USD 500.00 mark. The VLSFO index also showed an upward movement, adding USD 5.22 to reach USD 565.79/MT, compared to USD 560.57/MT the previous week. The most notable increase was recorded in the MGO index, which rose by USD 21.22—from USD 770.67/MT to USD 791.89/MT—bringing it close to the USD 800.00 threshold. At the time of writing, a slight downward correction was observed in the global bunker market.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—increased by $3.57, rising from $93.40 last week to $96.97, approaching the psychological threshold of $100.00, known as the SS Breakeven point. The weekly average of the global SS index also rose by $4.99. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread climbed by $12.00, from $66.00 to $78.00, while the port's weekly average jumped by $17.50. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened by $5.00, moving from $102.00 to $107.00, remaining comfortably above the $100.00 mark. The weekly average in the port increased by $12.67. The global bunker market continues to exhibit a steady upward trend in SS indices, indicating a phase of moderate market stabilization. With the SS Spread surpassing the $100.00 breakeven level, the profitability of the 380 HSFO + Scrubber option is being restored relative to conventional VLSFO. This trend is expected to persist into next week. Further details can be found in the Differentials section of mabux.com.
Europe is ramping up its liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases to refill storage facilities ahead of winter, a move that is driving up global prices and dampening demand in Asia. This pattern may become a seasonal trend until new LNG production capacity comes online.
As of July 8, European regional gas storage facilities were 60.92% full, marking a 2.02% increase from the previous week but a 10.41% decrease compared to the beginning of the year, when storage stood at 71.33%. According to the EU’s storage target, gas storage levels must reach 90% by November, or by December at the latest. This target effectively compels European buyers to increase LNG purchases, regardless of prevailing market prices. By the end of Week 28, the European gas benchmark TTF posted a moderate gain of 0.526 euro/MWh, rising from 33.693 euro/MWh to 34.219 euro/MWh.
By the end of the week, the price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines rose by another USD 2, reaching USD 815/MT, up from USD 813/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price difference between LNG and conventional marine fuel narrowed significantly. As of July 7, the gap decreased to just USD 10 in favor of conventional fuel, compared to USD 58 the week before. On that day, MGO LS was quoted at USD 805/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
At the end of the 28th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which compares market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP)—reflected mixed trends across the world’s major ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All ports remained in the undervalued zone. The MDI values increased by 6 points in Rotterdam, 13 points in Singapore, 6 points in Fujairah, and 9 points in Houston.
• VLSFO segment: Rotterdam continued to be the only overvalued port, with its MDI increasing by 6 points, bringing it to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP. The remaining ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—were all undervalued, with the level of undervaluation rising by 5 points in Singapore, 6 points in Fujairah, and 7 points in Houston. Notably, Houston’s MDI is now approaching the $100.00 mark.
• MGO LS segment: All selected ports remained undervalued. The MDI increased significantly across the board: by 23 points in Rotterdam, 30 points in Singapore, 39 points in Fujairah, and 10 points in Houston. Fujairah's MDI continues to stay above the $100.00 threshold.
Overall, the structure of overvalued and undervalued ports saw little change compared to the previous week. Rotterdam remains the only overvalued port, and only in the VLSFO segment, while the undervaluation trend persists globally. No significant changes in the SS Spread dynamics are anticipated for the upcoming week.
More detailed information on the relationship between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section on mabux.com.
At the OSPAR (Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic) meeting held in Brussels on 26 June, EU environment ministers and representatives from 15 European governments reached a landmark agreement to ban discharges from open-loop scrubbers in the inland waters and port areas of the OSPAR maritime region. The ban is scheduled to take effect by July 2027. As a follow-up measure, discharges from closed-loop scrubbers are also set to be banned starting January 2029. This decision marks the first regional regulation targeting scrubber discharges and could serve as a precedent for other marine regions around the world. While several OSPAR member states advocated for extending the ban to encompass the full 12 nautical miles of territorial waters, a consensus on this proposal could not be reached during the meeting. OSPAR was originally established in 1972 through the adoption of the Oslo Convention, aimed at preventing the dumping of waste at sea. Its scope was broadened in 1974 with the Paris Convention, which addressed land-based pollution and the impact of marine industrial activities. The two conventions were later unified under the OSPAR Convention. Currently, OSPAR comprises 15 member countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
We believe that, amid relative market stabilization, global bunker indices are likely to continue their moderate upward trend in the coming week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX