Global oil supply disruptions could reach around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) as Western sanctions in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine cut Russian output and other producers also grapple with production or export challenges.

That is on top of some 2.2 barrels bpd of crude that OPEC+, which groups members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia, have yet to return to the market following record output curbs imposed after the pandemic reduced demand.

OPEC members Iran, Libya and Venezuela are not participating in the OPEC+ output curbs but have faced setbacks that have lowered production.

The following are expected and reported disruptions in order of size:

RUSSIA (FORECAST 3 MLN BPD)

Western sanctions on Moscow and buyer reluctance could lead Russian oil supplies to drop by 3 million bpd from April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on March 16.

Russia’s oil and gas condensate output was 10.6 million bpd by the end of March, down from an average of 11.08 million bpd in February, while loadings from its western ports were also down month-on-month.

Russia said a decline in its output was due to temporary changes in logistics and financing, questioning the IEA’s predictions.

Russia’s 150,000 barrel-per-day Taif refinery in the Tatarstan region shut down operations following product overstocking, while the country’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil has said it might shut down refineries due to a lack of fuel oil storage capacity.

IRAN (1.2 MLN BPD)

Iran is pumping about 2.6 million bpd, some 1.2 million bpd less than in 2018 when former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear accord and re-imposed sanctions. The parties, however, have been seeking to revive the deal that could lead to increased output.

KAZAKHSTAN (320,000 BPD)

Kazakhstan’s crude oil output has been reduced by 320,000 bpd due to a storm damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in Russia in March. Kazakhstan has cut its oil output forecast to 85.7 million tonnes this year from the previous target of 87.5 million.

LIBYA (300,000 BPD)

Libyan oil production, at about 1.3 million bpd, is well below levels of 1.6 million bpd before the civil war that broke out in 2011. An outage in March caused a temporary loss of over 300,000 bpd of production.

IRAQ (220,000 BPD)

Iraq pumped 4.15 million bpd of oil in March following field outages in the south, 222,000 bpd short of its production quota under an agreement with other OPEC+ producers, data from state-owned marketer SOMO seen by Reuters showed.

NIGERIA

Nigerian output fell 100,000 bpd in March, the Reuters survey found, after incidents prompted force majeure to be declared on the Bonny and Brass River streams. Force majeure was later lifted on Brass River.
Source: Reuters (Compiled by Nerijus Adomaitis; editing by Mark Potter, Jason Neely and Barbara Lewis)