US Natural gas production could witness a significant recovery in production in March data compared to February levels as pipeline flow data indicate that during March, production recovered to the highs of last November. Overall for 2014, Barclays expects gas production to exhibit accelerated growth year-on-year from 2013 levels.

January 2014 production for the lower-48 was revised higher by 0.03 Bcf/d, due mostly to an upward revision of Oklahoma production of 0.10 Bcf/d, while "other states" production was revised lower by 0.05 Bcf/d.

Gross withdrawals of natural gas in the Lower-48 increased 0.05 Bcf/d, to 75.37 Bcf/d, in February 2014, according to the latest EIA Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report. The reported production growth came in significantly less than pipeline flow estimates, which showed production growing almost 0.75 Bcf/d m/m in February. However, pipeline data indicate that production is about 0.8 Bcf/d below November 2013 averages in February, while the EIA-914 data show that production is only about 0.6 Bcf/d below November averages. Pipeline data have poor visibility into intrastate pipeline flows; therefore, estimates on production changes related to freeze-offs could exhibit significant discrepancies from EIA’s survey-based reports.

The report suggests that with the exception of "other states," little progress was made on recovering production from freeze-offs during February. Texas, by far, had the largest decline, 0.49 Bcf/d m/m. According to the EIA, this is due largely to operators' reporting gas plant downtime and well shut-ins due to the freezing weather. New Mexico declined 0.04 Bcf/d m/m, while Oklahoma dropped by0.14 Bcf/d m/m. Wyoming and Louisiana stayed roughly flat m/m. The “other states” had significant growth of 0.6 Bcf/d m/m, due to new wells coming online, as well as recoveries from weather-related disruptions. The Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico also increased, by 0.11 Bcf/d m/m, as wells recovered from maintenance issues.
Source: EIA