India’s fuel demand is likely to grow 5.5% in the next fiscal year beginning April 1, initial government estimates show, reflecting a pick-up in industrial activity and mobility in Asia’s third largest economy after months of stagnation.

India’s fuel consumption in 2022-23, a proxy for oil demand, could rise to 214.5 million tonnes from the revised estimates of 203.3 million tonnes for the current fiscal year ending March 2022, according to government forecasts.

The estimates were released on the website of the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), a unit of the federal oil ministry.

Local demand for gasoline, used mainly in passenger vehicles, is expected to rise by 7.8% to 33.3 million tonnes, while gasoil consumption was slated grow by about 4% to 79.3 million tonnes, the data showed.

Consumption of aviation fuel would likely increase by nearly 50% to 7.6 million tonnes, compared with the revised estimate of 5.1 million tonnes for the year ending March 2022.

Demand for petcoke, a better-burning alternative to coal, could increase 2.8% to 14.8 million tonnes, while demand for liquefied petroleum gas, used as cooking fuel, is estimated to grow 4.5% to 29.7 million tonnes, PPAC said.

The table below shows the government’s estimates for the fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 2023.

Product

2021-22
2022-23
% change

LPG
28.4
29.7
4.5

Kerosene

1.5
1.5
0.0

Gasoline

30.9
33.3
7.8

Naphtha

14.6
15.1
3.3
Gasoil

76.3
79.3
4.0

Jet fuel

5.1
7.6
49.2

LDO

1.0
1.1
8.2

Lubes/Greases

4.5
4.5
1.5

Fuel Oil

6.1
6.3
2.4

Bitumen

7.8
7.9
1.8

Petcoke

14.4
14.8
2.8

Others

12.7
13.3
5.4

All Products

203.3
214.5
5.5

LDO is light diesel oil. LPG is liquefied petroleum gas.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan and Nidhi Verma; Editing by Jan Harvey)