Shifts in container import volumes from West Coast ports* have been highlighted in the media since the middle of the pandemic and the subject has been top of mind again with the protracted ILWU contract negotiations. Given the dynamics of U.S. container imports, it has been difficult to determine how much volume shifted away from the West Coast ports, where it went, and what were the countries of origin and top commodities that left.

Descartes analyzed U.S. container import volumes (TEUs) in the first three months of 2019 compared to the first three months of 2023 for insights into the shift away from the West Coast ports. Overall U.S. import container volumes (see Figure 1) are extremely close (0.19% difference) for the first three months of both years, which allows for a reasonable “apples” comparison.

Comparing the first quarter of 2023 to 2019, it is quite evident that there was a significant shift (see figure 2). The West Coast container outflow is quite close to the East and Gulf Coasts container inflow. If we extrapolate the Q1 data over twelve months the calculation would show that over one million TEUs moved away from the West Coast ports annually, starting in 2021. This also considers March 2023’s significant reversal of the decline in volume that occurred at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The biggest winner in the movement away from the West Coast ports was the Gulf Coast ports (see Figure 3); the East Coast Ports container import volume only grew slightly.

Descartes analyzed Gulf Coast container imports to determine the countries of origin comprising the change. Not surprisingly, importers moved Asian-based imports and they were the top countries of origin that drove the volume growth at Gulf Coast ports (see Figure 4). However, a smaller shift away from Northern European container imports was occurring simultaneously.

Finally, Descartes analyzed what commodities made up the increase in container volumes for the Gulf Coast. The types of commodities that experienced the greatest growth in the Gulf Ports, such as electronics, furniture and machinery, are typically associated with Asian manufacturers.

Changing trade lanes is not a trivial activity; however, the degree of volume shift that occurred in a short time frame during the pandemic is a testament to the ingenuity of logistics professionals. As many factors, such as the pandemic and ILWU contract negotiations run their course, and improvements to ports and infrastructure reduce congestion, it will be interesting to see how much volume returns to the West Coast ports or remains elsewhere.
Source: Descartes