EMEA port operators are mostly in a good position to deal with global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. However, the ratings on Limak and Euroports had low headroom prior to President Trump's tariff announcements, which may further increase pressure on their credit profiles unless mitigated.
US tariff policy uncertainty and the potential broader reconfiguration of trade routes are likely to directly weigh on port volumes in EMEA. It can also indirectly affect economic growth through weaker demand for goods, lower business confidence and consumer spending, tighter credit conditions, and disruptions to supply chains and capital investment. Fitch forecasts global growth to slow to 2.2% in 2025, from 2.9% in 2024, while growth in the eurozone will remain at around 1% for the next two years.
Chemicals, automotive, technology and the steel sectors are likely to be the most affected from US trade policy volatility.
In our view, the need for the US to replenish stocks from China to avoid shortages and the search for new partners by China may trigger significant trade diversion that could create opportunities for port operators in Europe. EMEA port operators' trade volumes increased by high single digits in 1Q25 year on year. However, in 2Q25, port congestion across key northern European hubs intensified due to surges in demand ahead of the next tariff deadline, as importers front-load shipments of cargo and volumes from Asia to Europe increase.
We do not expect any issuer in our rated seaport portfolio to be fully immune to the implications of the US tariffs, if fully implemented. ABP and Euroports have the highest direct exposure to US volumes, while Boluda's towage business model makes it the least affected by the indirect implications of US tariffs in our portfolio. ABP operates in the UK, which has signed a trade deal with the US.
While ports in EMEA may experience a slowdown in growth, the trade war implications can be mitigated through pricing power, geographic and cargo diversification, shipping line affiliations, non-volumetric revenue and capex flexibility. Most Fitch-rated EMEA port operators have the cash flow strength to absorb near-term volatility, as well as medium-term bullet maturities on their debt, which limit refinancing risk. As a result, we expect most ratings to have sufficient headroom to withstand tariff pressures, despite changing the sector outlook for EMEA seaports to ‘deteriorating' from ‘neutral' last month.
The credit profile of ABP benefits from its landlord business model, with protective contractual arrangements and price flexibility. Boluda and DP World are supported by their diversified global operations, while the ratings on Abu Dhabi Ports and NamPort are linked to those of their respective sovereign governments. Turkish Limak's export flows to the US account for less than 3% of its total volumes, while competing textile exporters from China, India and Vietnam are likely to be subject to higher tariffs. We expect liquidity to remain strong, particularly among investment-grade issuers.
However, pressures have increased for Limak and Euroports, whose credit profiles had already been strained by weak capital structures with limited financial cushions, changes in shareholding structures, and challenging market conditions in tariff-exposed sectors, leading to lower rating headroom. Still, the issuers' capex has been flexible in response to risks, while we forecast their dividend distributions to remain capped in the near term.
Fitch Ratings-London-10 July 2025: EMEA port operators are mostly in a good position to deal with global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. However, the ratings on Limak and Euroports had low headroom prior to President Trump's tariff announcements, which may further increase pressure on their credit profiles unless mitigated.
US tariff policy uncertainty and the potential broader reconfiguration of trade routes are likely to directly weigh on port volumes in EMEA. It can also indirectly affect economic growth through weaker demand for goods, lower business confidence and consumer spending, tighter credit conditions, and disruptions to supply chains and capital investment. Fitch forecasts global growth to slow to 2.2% in 2025, from 2.9% in 2024, while growth in the eurozone will remain at around 1% for the next two years.
Chemicals, automotive, technology and the steel sectors are likely to be the most affected from US trade policy volatility.
In our view, the need for the US to replenish stocks from China to avoid shortages and the search for new partners by China may trigger significant trade diversion that could create opportunities for port operators in Europe. EMEA port operators' trade volumes increased by high single digits in 1Q25 year on year. However, in 2Q25, port congestion across key northern European hubs intensified due to surges in demand ahead of the next tariff deadline, as importers front-load shipments of cargo and volumes from Asia to Europe increase.
We do not expect any issuer in our rated seaport portfolio to be fully immune to the implications of the US tariffs, if fully implemented. ABP and Euroports have the highest direct exposure to US volumes, while Boluda's towage business model makes it the least affected by the indirect implications of US tariffs in our portfolio. ABP operates in the UK, which has signed a trade deal with the US.
While ports in EMEA may experience a slowdown in growth, the trade war implications can be mitigated through pricing power, geographic and cargo diversification, shipping line affiliations, non-volumetric revenue and capex flexibility. Most Fitch-rated EMEA port operators have the cash flow strength to absorb near-term volatility, as well as medium-term bullet maturities on their debt, which limit refinancing risk. As a result, we expect most ratings to have sufficient headroom to withstand tariff pressures, despite changing the sector outlook for EMEA seaports to ‘deteriorating' from ‘neutral' last month.
The credit profile of ABP benefits from its landlord business model, with protective contractual arrangements and price flexibility. Boluda and DP World are supported by their diversified global operations, while the ratings on Abu Dhabi Ports and NamPort are linked to those of their respective sovereign governments. Turkish Limak's export flows to the US account for less than 3% of its total volumes, while competing textile exporters from China, India and Vietnam are likely to be subject to higher tariffs. We expect liquidity to remain strong, particularly among investment-grade issuers.
However, pressures have increased for Limak and Euroports, whose credit profiles had already been strained by weak capital structures with limited financial cushions, changes in shareholding structures, and challenging market conditions in tariff-exposed sectors, leading to lower rating headroom. Still, the issuers' capex has been flexible in response to risks, while we forecast their dividend distributions to remain capped in the near term.
Historically, port revenues outperform volumes in weak economic years due to rate flexibility, contractual revenue buffers and the presence of non-volumetric revenues such as rental income and cruise fees. However, a longer-term trade war could place greater pressure on revenues and ratings, particularly if shipping companies seek to renegotiate contracts with ports.
Source: Fitch Ratings